Premier League matchday 18 kicks off this weekend following the Christmas holiday season for those who celebrate. The marquee fixture headlines Saturday’s slate, as a red-hot Aston Villa side travels to Stamford Bridge to take on Chelsea. Below, we break down our best bets and same game parlays for Matchweek 18, focusing on value, trends, and match dynamics across the Premier League.
Contents:
- Manchester City & Liverpool – Both Teams to Win
- Saturday ACCA / Parlay
- Brentford vs Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score + Both Teams to Receive a Card
- Chelsea vs Aston Villa: Aston Villa or Draw
Manchester City & Liverpool – Both Teams to Win
Odds:
- American: -105
- Decimal: 1.95
- Fractional: 19/20
Manchester City – Win (vs Nottingham Forest):
Manchester City head to the City Ground this weekend to face Nottingham Forest. City have been in excellent form of late, winning seven consecutive matches and conceding zero goals across their previous three matches in all competitions. With Arsenal leading the Premier League, every league fixture carries added pressure for Pep Guardiola’s side as they continue the chase at the top of the table.
Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have experienced a mixed run of results and come into this match following a 1–0 loss to Fulham. For Sean Dyche’s Forest side, this represents an extremely difficult matchup, and I see the Cityzens coming out on top.
Win probability metrics give Manchester City a 58% chance of winning this match, though I believe their likelihood of victory is even higher than that number suggests.
Liverpool – Win (vs Wolves):
Liverpool appear to be finding their rhythm again, now unbeaten in six consecutive matches across all competitions. The Reds are coming off an impressive 2–1 away victory over Tottenham last weekend.
On the other side, Wolves have been… Wolves. Still winless in the Premier League and riding an 11-match losing streak in all competitions, Wolves are a side lacking confidence and momentum at the moment.
Win probability metrics have given Liverpool a 79% probability of winning this match.
To view the win probability percentages for all Premier League matches each week, click here.
Pick: Manchester City (vs. Nottingham Forest) & Liverpool (vs. Wolves) – Both Teams to Win
Saturday ACCA / Parlay
- West Ham vs Fulham: Over 1.5 Goals
- Bukayo Saka (ARS) – 2+ Fouls Drawn (vs. Brighton)
- Adrien Truffert (BOU) – 2+ Tackles (vs. Brentford)
Odds:
- American: +150
- Decimal: 2.50
- Fractional: 3/2
West Ham vs Fulham: Over 1.5 Goals:
West Ham currently sit in the relegation zone on 13 points and have failed to win any of their last six Premier League matches. The Irons have struggled for much of the season, and that trend is reflected in the underlying numbers.
Across their last five matches, West Ham have averaged just 0.85 expected goals per match while allowing an average of 1.54 expected goals per match. Defensively, they have consistently allowed opponents to generate quality chances.
Fulham, meanwhile, have averaged 1.17 expected goals per match in their last five matches across all competitions, while allowing an average of 1.69 expected goals per match.
I expect both sides to create opportunities in this matchup, and I would not be surprised to see each team find the net. With that in mind, I’m taking over 1.5 goals as part of the ACCA.
Bukayo Saka (ARS) – 2+ Fouls Drawn (vs. Brighton):
Bukayo Saka has drawn an average of 2.50 fouls per 90 minutes this Premier League season. This matchup should see Arsenal dominate possession, with much of their progression and attacking play once again flowing down the right flank.
Adrien Truffert (BOU) 2+ Tackles (vs. Brentford):
Adrien Truffert has averaged 1.50 tackles won per 90 minutes so far this Premier League campaign. However, I expect this fixture between Bournemouth and Brentford to feature a significant amount of vertical play down the wide areas, a scenario in which Truffert should be called into defensive action frequently. Given the styles of both sides, I see him reaching the two-tackle mark here.
*Individual legs are voided if player does not start
Pick: Saturday ACCA / Parlay
Brentford vs Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score + Both Teams to Receive a Card
Odds:
- American: -120
- Decimal: 1.83
- Fractional: 83/100
Brentford come into this match off the back of a much-needed 2–0 win over Wolves last weekend, snapping a poor run of form. While the Bees have struggled on the road, their home performances have been far stronger, scoring 16 goals across eight home Premier League matches this season.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have gone eight matches without a win after starting the season in strong fashion. Despite their struggles, the Cherries have scored eight goals across their last five matches, averaging 1.39 expected goals per match. Over that same stretch, they have allowed an average of 1.48 expected goals per match.
I see both teams finding the back of the net here as they look to turn their recent form around.
From a disciplinary perspective, Bournemouth have averaged 2.53 cards per match this season, while Brentford have averaged 2.00 cards per match. I once again expect both sides to receive at least one booking in this contest.
Pick: Both Teams to Score + Both Teams to Receive a Card
Chelsea vs Aston Villa: Aston Villa or Draw
Odds:
- American: +100
- Decimal: 2.00
- Fractional: 1/1
Aston Villa are in sensational form, having won 10 consecutive matches across all competitions. Chelsea, by contrast, have been inconsistent, drawing their most recent match against Newcastle United and winning just two of their last seven matches in all competitions.
Win probability metrics give Chelsea a 43% chance of winning this match, leaving Aston Villa or Draw with a combined probability of 57%. Given the odds available for that probability, I am backing Chelsea to drop points at home.
Pick: Aston Villa or Draw
All data provided via fbref.
Disclaimer: The betting picks and analysis shared are for informational purposes only and are not guarantees of outcome or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and only risk money you are willing to lose.
