Matchday 25 of the Premier League brings us lots of blockbuster matches including Manchester United vs Tottenham and Manchester City paying a visit to Liverpool – but for our highlighted match of the week, we are taking a deep dive into Newcastle United hosting Brentford. Below is our full pre-match analysis and breakdown, including team news, player injuries, predicted starting lineups, a Newcastle United vs Brentford prediction, key stats, and betting picks.
Newcastle vs Brentford Odds:
| Newcastle | Draw | Brentford | |
| American | +110 | +250 | +250 |
| Decimal | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Fractional | 11/10 | 5/2 | 5/2 |
Newcastle Team News & Injuries
Newcastle have been battling a demanding fixture schedule in recent weeks. The Magpies have already played 10 matches since the turn of the New Year, with this fixture marking their eleventh. Newcastle are coming off a disappointing 3–1 loss in the second leg of their Carabao Cup tie against Manchester City, a result that saw them exit the competition.
In their most recent Premier League outing last weekend, Newcastle were shown the gears in a 4–1 defeat to Liverpool at Anfield.
Eddie Howe’s side will be aiming to change their trajectory as they return home for this match and will be hoping to get back into the win column after four consecutive matches without a victory in all competitions.
The availability of Bruno Guimarães, Lewis Miley, and Anthony Gordon remains uncertain and will likely depend on matchday fitness testing, further complicating matters for Newcastle as injuries continue to pile up.
Newcastle Injuries: Emil Krafth, Fabian Schär, Valentino Livramento, Bruno Guimarães, Joelinton, Anthony Gordon, Lewis Miley
Brentford Team News & Injuries
Brentford impressed in their most recent match against Aston Villa, with the Bees coming away with all three points despite being reduced to ten men in the first half following Kevin Schade’s red card.
That said, Brentford still face a tall task as they travel north to St. James’ Park for this fixture.
Brentford Injuries: Kevin Schade (suspended), Fábio Carvalho, Joshua Dasilva
Newcastle vs Brentford Predicted Starting Lineups
Newcastle Lineup Notes
Newcastle’s lineup will be heavily dependent on player availability, as previously mentioned. Woltemade could step into the centre-forward role if Eddie Howe opts for a profile that offers stronger link-up play to complement the pace of his wingers and the central midfield options available to him.
Ramsey and Willock appear the most likely central midfielders to step in should Guimarães and Miley both be unavailable.
Brentford Lineup Notes
With Kevin Schade suspended, either Lewis-Potter or Reiss Nelson could step into Brentford’s left-wing role. However, the evidence suggests that Lewis-Potter is the more likely option.
I also expect Jordan Henderson to be rotated to the bench for this match, as Brentford’s coaching staff may continue to manage his minutes following his return from injury.
Match Preview
This match shapes up to be an intriguing one, with Brentford firmly in the mix for European qualification next season, while Newcastle will be looking to right their recent wrongs as they battle through injuries in pursuit of all three points at home. In the reverse fixture earlier this season, Brentford were able to capitalise on a second yellow card shown to Dan Burn, allowing the Bees to claim a 3–1 home victory back in November.
Newcastle in Attack
Newcastle operate in a 4-3-3 shape with that shape shifting and transitioning throughout their phases of possession.
During Newcastle’s build-up phase of play, Newcastle looks to provide width to the pitch.
- Tonali looks to drop into the back line while Newcastle’s fullbacks push slightly higher up the pitch to provide width, creating a 3-4-3 shape
- As Newcastle progress up the pitch, players have options on what shape to take up
- Hall (LB) can drop into the back line, invert into central midfield, or push high up the wing to provide more width
- Tonali steps back into midfield, either with three or two
- Willock pushes higher to join the attack in the front line if Hall does not push wide down the wing
- In attack, Newcastle often look to create a 3-2-5 shape with Hall able to make up the back line of three, or move slightly higher up the pitch and inverting into the central midfield in place of Willock
- Trippier (RB) pushes high up the pitch to provide width down Newcastle’s right wing
- At times, both of Newcastle’s fullbacks push high to provide width
- Willock does not push into the attacking line, he rather sits in his midfield position, leaving Tonali to either cover in the back line, or remain in midfield
Newcastle’s midfielders in attack move to the same side of the attack at times, drawing the opposition’s midfielders and opening up space centrally. [See image below]
- Newcastle’s attacking midfield duo move to the same side as possession, dragging with them the opposition’s central midfielders
- Space is opened up centrally for any of Newcastle’s players to either step or drop into to receive.
- This passage of play can often provide Newcastle with chances in a dangerous position albeit outside the area.
- With Newcastle’s midfielders shifting the same side as possession, an overload is created, oftentimes outnumbering their opponents wide.
- Runs can be made in behind in the half-spaces
- The ball can be easier circulated centrally via the midfielders
- Crosses can be whipped in from wide or half-space areas
Brentford defenders will be tested by Newcastle’s crosses and driven balls in.
Newcastle have struggled in recent matches to generate high-quality chances through central areas while in possession, and as a result, their goal output has dipped. Addressing this issue will be crucial if Newcastle are to find success in this matchup.
Brentford’s Counter-Attack vs Newcastle’s Attacking Shape
Brentford are a side that rely heavily on their direct counter-attacking approach to create chances. I expect Newcastle to dominate possession in this match, and Brentford will likely be comfortable allowing this, as it plays directly into their counter-attacking strengths.
With multiple Newcastle players pushing high up the pitch at times, combined with a lack of pace in central defence on occasion, Newcastle could be particularly vulnerable to Brentford’s directness and speed on the counter – especially when both fullbacks vacate the back line.
I do expect Sandro Tonali to drop into the defensive line to help sustain a three-man rest defence, but players such as Igor Thiago and Ouattara could still cause serious problems for Newcastle’s defenders in transition.
Newcastle typically look to counter-press immediately after losing possession, with midfielders often tasked as the primary ball-winners by stepping high and aggressively engaging the ball carrier. If Brentford are able to find the right pass to bypass this counter-press, they could spring dangerous counter-attacking opportunities.
Another major threat for Newcastle comes from Brentford’s counter-attacks following set-pieces. Newcastle commit their larger defenders forward on attacking set-pieces, as most teams do, but Brentford have shown a proven ability to break quickly and attack directly after defending opposition set-pieces, making these moments particularly dangerous.
Brentford in Possession vs Newcastle’s Defense
Newcastle defend in a 4-5-1 formation.
- Newcastle’s wingers drop into the midfield line defending the opposition’s wider players
- Tonali sits deeper most times, looking to take up the free space between lines centrally
- Newcastle’s central midfield 3 defend narrowly together, looking to suffocate the centre of midfield
In possession, Brentford create a 3-2-5 shape.
- Both of Brentford’s fullbacks (Henry & Kayode) push high up the pitch to provide width in attack
- With their fullbacks pushing high, Brentford’s wingers can take up positions in the half-spaces
- Janelt drops from his holding midfield position to take up position in Brentford’s back line of 3
- Brentford’s central midfielders (Jensen & Yarmoliuk) are given the freedom to roam the pitch, moving from central spaces into the outside lanes of the pitch to provide more numbers wide when needed
Newcastle press and try to push their opposition backward by pressing aggressively with midfielders jumping their line.
- An aggressive push high from Newcastle’s midfielders when the ball is in front of the midfield line in the half-spaces
- When Newcastle’s midfielders look to step up, space is opened up centrally between their lines
- Oftentimes, two of Newcastle’s three midfielders step together, looking to take away passing options to give themselves the best chance of winning possession
- Tonali steps to the ball carrier
- Ramsey steps to cover the closest option in the back line
- Space is opened between Newcastle’s lines if Brentford can find the right ball into space
Brentford’s Use of Width
Brentford will also look to attack directly or utilise width, often keeping players in wide areas and targeting opposition flanks with crosses and dangerous deliveries into the box. Newcastle typically defend with width themselves and should not need to make significant adjustments to their defensive setup to accommodate this approach, which will be encouraging for the Magpies.
It will be vital, however, for Newcastle’s central defenders to ensure that Igor Thiago is tightly marked in central areas.
Brentford Set-Pieces
Throughout the season, Brentford have been innovative and effective from attacking set-pieces. In contrast, Newcastle have conceded 10 goals from set-pieces so far this campaign. This is an area where Brentford could look to exploit Newcastle’s defensive fragility.
Statistics provided via WhoScored?
Newcastle vs Brentford Prediction
I expect Newcastle to control possession in this match, with Brentford aiming to maximise their opportunities on the counter-attack and from set-pieces – two areas where Newcastle may be particularly vulnerable.
Newcastle will need to remain patient when attempting to break down Brentford’s well-organised low block and must be clinical when chances arise if they want to return to winning ways.
I am predicting a 1–1 draw. Injuries appear to significantly hamper Newcastle’s attacking capabilities, and they may struggle to create chances in volume. Brentford, meanwhile, should be capable of causing damage on the counter. Eddie Howe will be hoping he can structure Newcastle’s attacking shape in a way that limits Brentford’s counter-attacking threat. Ultimately, the outcome of this match may hinge heavily on Newcastle’s player availability.
Betting Tips
Pick: Igor Thiago (BRE) 1+ Shots on Target
Odds:
- American: -175
- Decimal: 1.57
- Fractional: 57/100
Igor Thiago is Brentford’s main man this season, surpassing all expectations and even potentially putting himself on Brazil’s plane to the World Cup this summer. Igor Thiago has scored 16 goals in the Premier League this season with Brentford and has averaged 1.38 shots on target per 90 minutes.
With Thiago being the direct outlet for Brentford’s counter-attacks and also being the main target man on Brentford set pieces and crosses into the box, I am backing Igor Thiago to get at least one shot on target in this match.
Pick: Igor Thiago (BRE) 1+ Shots on Target
Data provided via fbref.
*Pick is voided if player does not start
About the author, Mitchell Poirier
Disclaimer: The betting picks and analysis shared are for informational purposes only and are not guarantees of outcome or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and only risk money you are willing to lose.
