Matchday 27 of the Premier League brings several blockbuster fixtures, including Manchester City vs Newcastle United and Tottenham hosting North London derby rivals Arsenal. For this matchweek, we are taking a deep dive into West Ham vs Bournemouth.
Below is our full pre-match analysis and breakdown, including team news, player injuries, predicted starting lineups, a West Ham vs Bournemouth prediction, key stats, and betting picks.
West Ham Team News
West Ham are currently sitting in 18th position in the Premier League and continue their fight against relegation. In recent weeks, however, they have looked much improved, losing just one of their last seven matches in all competitions. That run includes a win away at Tottenham and a home draw against Manchester United.
Most recently, West Ham progressed to the fifth round of the FA Cup following a 1-0 win over Burton Albion. Unfortunately, during that tie, young midfielder Freddie Potts received a red card in the 101st minute of extra time and will now serve a suspension, ruling him out for this weekend’s clash against the Cherries.
Cryscensio Summerville has also been in excellent form, scoring six goals in West Ham’s last seven matches across all competitions.
Bournemouth Team News
Bournemouth, like West Ham, have experienced an uptick in form, going unbeaten in their last six league matches. That run includes an impressive 3-2 victory over Liverpool.
Last time out, Bournemouth secured a 2-1 comeback win on the road at Hill Dickinson Park against Everton.
Bournemouth’s latest signing, 19-year-old Brazilian winger Rayan, has made a strong start to life with the Cherries. He has already registered two goals and one assist in just three appearances and will certainly be a key player to watch in this match.
West Ham Injuries
Unavailable:
Freddie Potts (suspension), Łukasz Fabiański, Pablo
Bournemouth Injuries
Unavailable:
Justin Kluivert, Ben Doak, Marcus Tavernier, Julio Soler
West Ham vs Bournemouth Predicted Lineups
West Ham Lineup Notes
West Ham have recently deployed Callum Wilson or Pablo in shadow striker roles, operating just behind striker Taty Castellanos. However, for this match against Bournemouth, I expect Nuno Espírito Santo to revert to a system featuring three true central midfielders.
With Potts suspended, I am predicting Magassa to step into the starting midfield role.
Between the sticks, it could be either Hermansen or Areola. Hermansen has started West Ham’s previous two Premier League matches, and I am expecting him to retain his place in goal for this fixture as well.
Jean-Clair Todibo returns from his three-match ban for violent conduct, which he picked up against Chelsea, and I expect him to reclaim his rightful place in West Ham’s starting XI.
Bournemouth Lineup Notes
Bournemouth will have benefited from a significant break since their previous match against Everton, giving Andoni Iraola the opportunity to field his strongest available starting XI.
Eli Kroupi should return to the starting lineup, with Cook and Scott handling the central holding midfield responsibilities.
Match Preview
With both sides trending upward in recent weeks, this match has the potential to be an entertaining contest. West Ham continue their battle against relegation, while Bournemouth are back in the conversation for a potential push toward European football next season.
How West Ham Will Likely Set Up
On paper, West Ham will set up in a 4-2-3-1 shape.
Defensively, West Ham operate in a 4-4-2 shape, with either the central attacking midfielder or Cryscensio Summerville stepping up alongside Taty Castellanos to form a press-ready front two. When West Ham choose to start a striker in the central attacking midfield or shadow striker role – such as Pablo or Callum Wilson – that player is typically tasked with stepping higher out of possession.
However, I am expecting a more traditional midfield three from West Ham in this match, which would likely see Summerville responsible for stepping forward to support the press.
In possession, West Ham look to create a 3-3-4 shape with their attack-minded fullbacks ready to overlap their wingers.
- West Ham look to get their fullbacks forward in attack (in example, Wan-Bissaka steps up into the attacking line with Diouf remaining further back to remain in the back line of three
- Both fullbacks will join the attack at times to provide width to the West Ham attack
- When both fullbacks look to push high in attack, one of West Ham’s central holding midfielders will drop into the back line, always keeping a defensive three at the back
How Bournemouth Will Likely Set Up
On paper, Bournemouth set up in a 4-2-3-1 shape.
Defensively, Bournemouth look to create either a 4-1-4-1 shape or a 4-1-3-2 shape.
- Bournemouth’s 4-1-4-1 defensive shape
- 1 holding midfielder (Cook in example) takes up the heart of midfield
- Shadow striker (Kroupi) drops into midfield line of defense
- Bournemouth’s 4-1-3-2 defensive shape
- When Bournemouth take up this shape with more numbers higher up the pitch, they look to press harder and more often
- 1 CDM drops to hold the heart of midfield
- Two front line defenders engage in pressing their opponents on the ball
- Lots of space is open in the central areas of the pitch for their opposition to exploit
In possession, Bournemouth look to create a 3-2-5 shape with one fullback pushing high up the pitch to join the attack.
- 1 fullback (in example Truffert) steps high up the pitch in the outside lane to invert their winger
- Opposite side fullback stays in the back line of three
- 2 holding midfielders stay in the central areas of the pitch to provide central passing options
- 1 holding midfielder can drop into the back line to allow for both fullbacks to step high up the pitch at times
Where West Ham Can Find Success
Invite the press
West Ham are not traditionally known for their ability to build out from the back, and I do not necessarily expect that to change here. That said, inviting Bournemouth’s press could work to their advantage.
When Bournemouth press in their 4-1-3-2 defensive shape, their numbers can be limited in central midfield. West Ham are at their best when the game becomes stretched vertically. If they opt for a traditional midfield three, they could create a 3-v-2 advantage centrally.
Drawing Bournemouth forward could also create space higher up the pitch for a more direct approach – something West Ham frequently utilise in their build-up.
Additionally, Bournemouth’s fullbacks tend to step out of their defensive line to track dropping opposition players, which can leave space in behind for opponents to exploit.
Invert Summerville
Going forward, West Ham should look to maximise the form of Cryscensio Summerville.
They should push Malik Diouf high down Bournemouth’s right flank, allowing Summerville to operate in the half-space rather than hugging the touchline.
Summerville has been particularly dangerous when cutting in from the left. Giving him a more advanced starting position in the half-space could lead to higher-quality opportunities rather than forcing actions from wide areas.
During sustained attacking phases, West Ham should maintain this structure – Summerville inverted, Diouf providing width on the outside.
Furthermore, Bournemouth tend to congest the space directly in front of their back line when defending in a low block. If Summerville drops slightly deeper into the half-space, he may find more room to receive and turn in threatening positions.
Capitalize on the Counter
Bournemouth can sometimes be left short of numbers centrally during attacking phases and in defensive transition. When both fullbacks push high during progression or sustained attacks, one holding midfielder drops into the back line to maintain a defensive three – leaving just one midfielder central.
- Kroupi steps high in attack as a secondary striker
- Both fullbacks push higher up the pitch
- 1 holding midfielder (Cook) drops into back line
- Scott can at times be left as the only player in the centre of the park for Bournemouth
- West Ham can look to outnumber Scott in the centre of midfield
West Ham would be wise to remain compact in their defensive shape, make themselves difficult to break down, and force turnovers.
When counter-attacking, West Ham typically commit numbers forward quickly. Fast, direct transitions through the middle of the pitch could prove particularly effective.
Where Bournemouth Can Find Success
Win the Second Balls
Bournemouth will look to press West Ham during build-up phases. Under pressure, West Ham often choose to go long, bypassing short build-up to clear danger.
As mentioned, West Ham may invite the press to create space for direct play. For Bournemouth, it will be crucial to win the second-ball duels when West Ham go long.
If Bournemouth can consistently secure second balls, they may pin West Ham back and disrupt any momentum the Hammers attempt to build.
Forcing turnovers in these situations could allow Bournemouth to stay on the front foot.
Shift to the Side of Attack
During progression and attacking phases, Bournemouth frequently overload the side of the pitch where the ball is located before switching quickly to the opposite flank.
By drawing West Ham’s defensive block toward one side, Bournemouth can create space to exploit with quick switches of play into dangerous areas.
- By dragging West Ham’s defending players out of their shape and forcing them to commit to the side of attack, space can be unlocked on the opposite side of the pitch
- Space can also be found in the middle of the park when West Ham are dragged wide, allowing for Bournemouth attackers to move into the central spaces
- Alex Scott in particular for Bournemouth is a great central outlet for Bournemouth with his willingness to play progressive passes and make progressive runs when there is space to run into
Drag Bowen out of Position
Jarrod Bowen is often tasked with tracking the opposing fullback, which can make him susceptible to being pulled out of position.
Chelsea executed this effectively, particularly through Jorrel Hato inverting into midfield from left back, which opened space down the flank. Marc Cucurella also pinned Bowen deeper when introduced, freeing up central areas.
If Truffert inverts at times, he could draw Bowen into central midfield zones, allowing Alex Scott to rotate wide into space.
Alternatively, when Truffert overlaps Adli and pushes high in the outside channel, it can create additional space centrally.
Attacking Set Pieces
West Ham have struggled defensively from set pieces this season.
In contrast, Bournemouth have scored 10 goals from set pieces (excluding penalties, per FotMob). This could represent a significant advantage for Bournemouth against a vulnerable West Ham side.
West Ham vs Bournemouth Prediction
I anticipate an attacking contest between two sides currently enjoying positive runs of form. Neutrals will be hoping for an action-packed encounter on Saturday.
Win probability metrics give West Ham a 31% chance of victory, while Bournemouth are slight favourites at 44%, leaving a 25% probability for a draw.
To view win probability metrics for every Premier League match – click here.
I expect this to be tightly contested, with the Cherries edging out the Hammers. My prediction is a 2-1 win for Bournemouth, although this fixture could realistically swing either way given both teams’ form.
Betting Tips
Pick: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals
Odds:
- American: -125
- Decimal: 1.80
- Fractional: 4/5
With both sides possessing clear attacking advantages and identifiable defensive vulnerabilities, I am backing both teams to score in what should be an open and entertaining contest with multiple goals.
Pick: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals
Disclaimer: The betting picks and analysis shared are for informational purposes only and are not guarantees of outcome or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and only risk money you are willing to lose.
