This is the final matchday before another international break in club football. The Premier League weekend is headlined by a Goliath sized match on Sunday when Manchester City host Liverpool. Here’s our full pre-match analysis and breakdown, including team news, player injuries, predicted starting lineups, tactical preview, key stats, and betting tips.
Odds:
| Manchester City | Draw | Liverpool | |
| American | -110 | +290 | +270 |
| Decimal | 1.90 | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| Fractional | 9/10 | 29/10 | 27/10 |
Previous Five Head-to-Head Matches (All Competitions)
Liverpool got the better of Manchester City in both meetings between the two sides last season, winning 2-0 in both fixtures. However, this is not the same Liverpool as last season, and this match will bring with it an entirely new setup tactically.
Manchester City Team News
Manchester City enter the match in strong form, following a 3-1 win over Bournemouth last weekend and a convincing 4-1 UEFA Champions League victory over German giants Borussia Dortmund in midweek.
Pep Guardiola has nearly a full squad available, which is great news for City supporters. Mateo Kovačić remains the only player fully sidelined through injury. Although Rodri is available for selection, he has yet to prove full match fitness.
Liverpool Team News
Liverpool have been on a bit of a rollercoaster recently. Heading into this weekend, the Reds have managed just three wins in their last nine matches across all competitions, two of those coming in the UEFA Champions League. However, they have now recorded back-to-back victories for the first time since September, defeating Aston Villa 2-0 last weekend in the Premier League and following that up with a hard-fought 1-0 win over Real Madrid in midweek.
Liverpool still have work to do, but it appears that Arne Slot has been making tactical adjustments to get more out of his side.
Out of contention for Liverpool this weekend are Alisson Becker, Leoni, Frimpong, Bajčetić, and Isak.
Predicted Starting Lineups
Manchester City Lineup Notes
Rodri did not dress for Manchester City’s match against Dortmund in midweek, and it remains uncertain whether he will feature this weekend. However, if he is even at 75% fitness, he may have to battle through the pain in this crucial fixture. Rayan Cherki has been in excellent form and should start on the right wing, with the fluid and experienced Bernardo Silva operating in midfield.
Liverpool Lineup Notes
With Isak most likely unavailable, Hugo Ekitike is expected to once again lead the line for Liverpool.
Arne Slot is unlikely to make many changes from Liverpool’s starting XI against Real Madrid, with the only anticipated adjustment being Cody Gakpo replacing Florian Wirtz. Although Wirtz performed well in that match, he remains a defensive and pressing liability in Slot’s system as he continues to adapt.
Dominik Szoboszlai impressed in the No. 10 role against Madrid and played a key part in Liverpool’s win. He is expected to start in the same position this weekend.
Match Preview
This match should be an intense one with plenty of entertainment for onlookers to enjoy. Heading into a match like this, between two sides who have been title rivals for so many years, I am just hoping that they do not play with a cagey approach and fail to live up to the hype.
Getting into the pre-match analysis, let’s have a look at Manchester City’s shape. On paper, Manchester City line up in a 4-1-4-1 formation; however, their structure takes on many different looks across various phases of the match. [See image below]
City rarely ever look like a true 4-1-4-1 in practice. Bernardo Silva is as fluid as a player can be when it comes to positional rotations and movement off the ball, with the midfielder at times dropping into the back line during build-up, acting as a secondary pivot in midfield, drifting wide on the wing, or stepping into an advanced right-sided No. 10 role. In build-up, Manchester City form a 4-3-3 shape, with their two advanced midfielders dropping centrally to help progress the ball while their wingers hold slightly higher positions. [See image below
Pep Guardiola’s City side look to build from the back, focusing primarily on advancing centrally through midfield before moving the ball wide or in behind the opposition’s back line for Haaland. When City’s advanced midfielders drop deeper, it creates a tight and narrow triangle that allows for quick, vertical tiki-taka passing. The players rotate frequently to open new passing lanes. City’s fullbacks then push up the pitch, staying wide to offer passing options from central areas and to progress down the flanks or play up the line to their wingers.
We will look at Liverpool’s setup shortly, but Szoboszlai will be crucial to Liverpool’s hopes of winning the battle in midfield should he start in the No. 10 role. He will need to press hard and aggressively, stay tight to City’s Rodri, and work to cut off passing lanes from City’s back line into midfield.
As the ball moves up the pitch and Manchester City begin their attacking phase in the opposition half, they remain fluid, with players rotating in and out of pockets of space and moving freely across the pitch.
In my pre-match analysis articles, I always look to include a team’s attacking shape, but with Manchester City, it can be difficult to define due to their fluidity and constant rotations. Still, their “ideal” attacking setup most closely resembles a 3-1-5-1 formation. [See image below]
With this structure, Bernardo Silva often drops slightly deeper into midfield to assist Rodri with ball circulation. Doku typically inverts centrally but occasionally stays wide and hugs the touchline. This is City’s base attacking shape before reaching the final third.
As the ball advances, City look to overload the attacking side, shifting numbers toward the area of play and allowing players to move freely to create overloads. [See image below]
What can be seen here from City in their most recent Premier League match against Bournemouth, Doku, who plays as City’s left winger, moved into the right channel in attack, while Foden, operating as City’s left-sided midfielder, shifted wide on the right flank for City’s overload. Manchester City overload the attacking side with numbers, adjusting their entire shape to support this. [See image below]
This overload out wide forces the opposition to shift, opening up space centrally. City outnumber their opponents in the wide channels, keeping possession and always maintaining passing options. This structure also helps them counter-press effectively when possession is lost, as they already have numbers in position to close down opponents, restrict outlets, and win back the ball quickly.
When City reach the final third, their shape becomes tight and compact. Players rotate seamlessly and maintain close proximity, allowing for constant passing and movement. In these moments, nearly every City player operates within the vertical lines of the penalty area, giving them endless options for ball circulation and interplay.
In attack, Nico O’Reilly also pushes high, often staying wide, which allows Doku to invert into central areas. Against Dortmund in midweek, O’Reilly frequently drifted into more central positions, at times almost acting as a second striker. This could be Pep Guardiola’s latest adjustment – using his attack-minded left back to occupy dangerous central zones in the final third.
City’s rest-defense setup is also strong. They maintain a narrow back three with one or two holding midfielders in front, giving them defensive stability against counters and forcing opponents wide, making transitions more difficult. [See image below]
Liverpool will likely struggle to break quickly on the counter with effectiveness.
Defensively, City set up in a 4-3-2-1 shape which can quickly transition into a 5-4-1 defensive low-block. [See images below]
(Now realizing I mixed up my numbers in the image – 5-4-1*)
If City’s opposition are able to progress the ball into a good attacking position, City will drop into a 5-4-1 shape, with their holding midfielder dropping into the back line and their wingers dropping into a midfield line of four. City defend extremely narrow, tight, and compact, always looking to stay tight in shape. This approach makes city extremely difficult to break down and progression through the central areas of the pitch near impossible. With this tight and compact shape, City do leave the outside lanes of the pitch open to be attacked, Liverpool’s attackers in Gakpo and Salah could find space to receive the ball and put it into the area, or take their defender on 1-v-1.
Looking at Liverpool, the Reds operate in a 4-2-3-1 shape. [See image below]
The biggest factor in this match will be Szoboszlai and Liverpool’s ability to press Manchester City and prevent them from progressing the ball easily through the centre. Szoboszlai’s display in the No. 10 role against Real Madrid was key. He pressed intelligently, blocked passing lanes between Madrid’s back line and midfielders, and man-marked Tchouaméni effectively.
Liverpool press in a 4-2-4 shape, with their front line closing down the opposition back line and their central midfielders man-marking the opponent’s higher central options. [See image below]
Szoboszlai’s importance in this higher role lies in his ability to pressure the defender on the ball while positioning himself in the passing lane between that defender and the pivot. Cutting off the nearest central outlet shut down Real Madrid’s build-up play, and he will need to replicate that performance against City. Using Wirtz in the No. 10 role, however, weakens Liverpool’s pressing structure and intensity, allowing the opposition to play through them more easily. This is why Slot is likely to choose Szoboszlai in that position again. If he can disrupt City’s central build-up, it will hinder their vertical tiki-taka rhythm and cause significant problems.
Liverpool defend in their 4-2-3-1 shape and have recently become more compact and difficult to break down. I expect this to continue when Manchester City have sustained spells of possession. City will likely find success in the wide areas with their overloads, but their real challenge will be moving the ball into dangerous central spaces.
In attack, Liverpool move into a 2-3-5 structure with their fullbacks tucking centrally to form a midfield three alongside Konaté and Van Dijk at the base. Liverpool have managed to avoid conceding from fast counter-attacks in recent matches, keeping two straight clean sheets, but they remain vulnerable in transition. Manchester City’s vertical passing during counter-attacks (where they play through the middle rather than long) actually plays into Liverpool’s favour by allowing their players time to recover. We may see a more direct approach from City on the break.
City will create opportunities throughout the match. Liverpool, if they continue their recent form, will create chances of their own. This should be an exciting match with high tension and an even higher tempo.
I am not picking a side in this match, but if I were to make a prediction, I would lean toward City. Liverpool have looked improved in their last two matches but still have issues to solve. Considering their difficult run of fixtures and the fact that they are away to an in-form City side, I give the edge to the Cityzens.
Betting Tips
Pick 1: Manchester City – Team Total over 4.5 Shots on Target (SoT)
Odds:
- American: -175
- Decimal: 1.57
- Fractional: 57/100
Manchester City have averaged 7.20 shots on target per match in their last five outings in all competitions, that includes 11 shots on target for the Sky Blues against Dortmund in midweek. Liverpool have allowed an average of 5.20 shots on target per match in their last five away matches in all competitions.
City have been firing on all cylinders and have been putting shots towards the target as often as they can. Although Liverpool are hard to break down defensively, I do think that City’s ability in attack with their player rotations, interplay, and movement will open up gaps. I also think that Haaland will have opportunities through the middle on counter-attacks when City are able to beat Liverpool’s counter-press or when they do go direct quickly
Pick: Manchester City – Team Total over 4.5 Shots on Target (SoT)
Pick 2: Same Game Parlay / Bet Builder – High Odds Flyer
- Erling Haaland (MCI) 1+ Shots on Target
- Phil Foden (MCI) 1+ Shots on Target
- Nico O’Reilly (MCI) 1+ Shots
- Dominik Szoboszlai (LIV) 1+ Shots
Odds:
- American: +320
- Decimal: 4.20
- Fractional: 16/5
Erling Haaland: Haaland has been absolutely sensational for Manchester City so far this season. Haaland has averaged 2.63 shots on target per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season and has averaged 3.4 shots on target in his last five matches in all competitions (1+ SoT in 5/5).
Phil Foden: Phil Foden appears to be a mainstay in Guariola’s lineup again which as a fan is nice to see. Foden has been in good form recently and could find the target when he finds himself with the ball in a pocket of space just outside the area, or when he makes a good run into a dangerous scoring position. Foden has reached 1+ shots on target in 4/5 most recent appearances against Liverpool.
Nico O’Reilly: Nico O’Reilly has been getting in more advanced positions this season and in their previous outing against Dortmund took up more central positions in attack as well. O’Reilly has averaged 1.36 shots per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season. In his last five outings for City, O’Reilly has averaged 1.60 shots per match (1+ shots in 4/5).
Dominik Szoboszlai: Szoboszlai is a tank engine for Liverpool, seemingly never running out of energy. If he plays in Liverpool’s no. 10 role, he will have plenty of opportunities to get further forward in attack. Szoboszlai has averaged 2.00 shots per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season. In his last five appearances for Liverpool in all competitions, Szoboszlai has averaged 2.20 shots per match (1+ shots in 4/5).
Pick: High Odds Same Game Parlay / Bet Builder
*Pick is voided if any player does not start
Disclaimer: The betting picks and analysis shared are for informational purposes only and are not guarantees of outcome or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and only risk money you are willing to lose.
