A midweek round of Premier League action kicks off on Tuesday, December 3, and it’s shaping up to be an exciting slate. Key matchups like Brighton vs Aston Villa, Bournemouth vs Everton, and a crucial outing for Chelsea headline a busy schedule filled with tight odds and high-stakes moments. Here, we break down our favorite betting lines, player props, and predictions for this week’s Premier League matches.
Contents:
- Bournemouth vs Everton: Over 3.5 Cards + Both Teams to Receive 1+ Cards
- Brighton vs Aston Villa: Both Teams to Score
- Brighton vs Aston Villa: Player Prop Double
- Burnley vs Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace – Win
- Wolves vs Nottingham Forest: Morgan Gibbs-White (NF) 1+ Shots on Target (SoT)
- Leeds vs Chelsea: Chelsea – Win
Bournemouth vs Everton: Over 3.5 Cards + Both Teams to Receive 1+ Cards
Odds:
- American: -120
- Decimal: 1.83
- Fractional: 83/100
This is a strange number for the card line in this match. My assumption behind the total being set at 3.5 instead of 4.5 is that bookmakers expect both sides to show more discipline after their recent red-card issues. Even so, I’m taking Over 3.5 Cards paired with Both Teams to Receive 1+ Cards – and here’s why.
The graphic above highlights Bournemouth and Everton ranking 1st and 7th in the Premier League respectively for yellow cards per match this season. Both sides are coming off tough losses: Bournemouth blew a 2–0 lead to Sunderland and fell 3–2, while Everton were beaten 4–1 by Newcastle United in embarrassing fashion. Each team will be desperate to bounce back, and I expect a competitive, intense match that could get chippy quickly.
Pick: Over 3.5 Cards + Both Teams to Receive 1+ Cards
Brighton vs Aston Villa: Both Teams to Score
For a full extensive and detailed pre-match analysis, check out our article covering the match here.
Odds:
- American: -143
- Decimal: 1.70
- Fractional: 7/10
I see both sides creating scoring opportunities in this match for a multitude of reasons. Both teams can be dangerous on the counter or from set pieces, both will look to create overloads in different attacking areas of the pitch, and both can be exposed by good interplay. I am backing both sides to find the back of the net in what should be a hard-fought contest.
Pick: Both Teams to Score
Brighton vs Aston Villa: Player Prop Double
- Boubacar Kamara (AV) 2+ Fouls Drawn
- Youri Tielemans (AV) 1+ Fouls Committed
Odds:
- American: +140
- Decimal: 2.40
- Fractional: 7/5
Boubacar Kamara (AV) 2+ Fouls Drawn: This pick will depend on Aston Villa’s starting lineup and who features for them in midfield. Picks are voided if either player does not start.
Boubacar Kamara has been amazing for Aston Villa and his ability on the ball often forces opponents to foul him. Kamara is often used in Villa’s counter-attacking play through the middle as well as their attacking play high up the pitch with Kamara often playing as a deep-lying pivot, ready to rotate the ball around the pitch. So far this Premier League season, Kamara has drawn an average of 2.09 fouls per 90 minutes. Brighton currently average the 4th most fouls committed per match with 12.0 on average. With Kamara’s ability paired with his involvement in Villa’s style of play, I am expecting Brighton players to be forced into fouls against the Villa midfielder.
Youri Tielemans (AV) 1+ Fouls Committed: Another prop focused on the battle in the midfield area of the pitch. Tielemans has a tendency of getting caught out of position and making rash challenges on opponents when he is looking to react. Tielemans has averaged 1.82 fouls committed per 90 minutes so far this season.
Data collected via fbref.
Pick: Boubacar Kamara (AV) 2+ Fouls Drawn + Youri Tielemans (AV) 1+ Fouls Committed
*Pick is voided if either player does not start
Burnley vs Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace Win
Odds:
- American: -133
- Decimal: 1.75
- Fractional: 3/4
Crystal Palace visit Turf Moor this weekend after a 2–1 loss to Manchester United, while Burnley enter the match following a 3–1 defeat to Brentford. Palace have impressed this season and sit 9th in the table, while Burnley sit 19th with a 3-1-9 record and just 10 points. Burnley have lost four straight, and unfortunately, I expect them to drop a fifth.
Crystal Palace defend well, attack in numbers, and create strong scoring opportunities. They currently have the 3rd-highest xG per match in the Premier League at 1.70, while Burnley sit last at just 0.73. Statistics aren’t everything, but they clearly highlight the quality gap between these two teams.
Win-probability metrics give Palace a 52% chance of winning, and I’m backing Oliver Glasner and the Eagles to find the openings needed to take all three points.
To view match win probability percentages for every match every week, find our Win Probability page here.
Pick: Crystal Palace – Win
Wolves vs Nottingham Forest: Morgan Gibbs-White (NF) 1+ Shots on Target (SoT)
Odds:
- American: -152
- Decimal: 1.66
- Fractional: 33/50
Morgan Gibbs-White is back to being Forest’s main man under Sean Dyche. He has averaged 0.81 shots on target per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season and 1.20 shots on target per match across all competitions under Dyche, spanning five appearances. He’s essential to Forest’s counter-attack and their structured attacking play in sustained possession.
With Gibbs-White returning to face his former club – one he came through at youth level but never truly broke through with – there’s also that extra touch of motivation. I’m backing him to hit the target at least once in this match.
Pick: Morgan Gibbs-White (NF) 1+ Shots on Target (SoT)
*Pick is voided if player does not start
Leeds vs Chelsea: Chelsea – Win
Odds:
- American: -133
- Decimal: 1.75
- Fractional: 3/4
Chelsea enter this match sitting 2nd in the Premier League and come off a hard-fought 1–1 draw with Arsenal, despite playing down a man for most of the match after Moisés Caicedo was sent off for a challenge on Mikel Merino. Chelsea will be without Caicedo for this one, but even without their midfield anchor, I still see them coming out on top.
Leeds have looked better recently and pushed Manchester City late before losing in the dying minutes. Chelsea, however, are the stronger side and come into this match in good form. Win probability models give them a 60% chance of victory. I’m backing the Blues to continue their strong run and take all three points on the road.
Pick: Chelsea – Win
Disclaimer: The betting picks and analysis shared are for informational purposes only and are not guarantees of outcome or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and only risk money you are willing to lose.
