Matchday 24 of the Premier League is upon us, bringing with it a slate of tantalizing fixtures including Liverpool vs Newcastle United, Aston Villa vs Brentford, and a headline clash between Manchester City and Tottenham. Below, we break down our best bets for Matchday 24, focusing on value, trends, and key match dynamics across the Premier League.
Contents:
- Leeds vs Arsenal: Arsenal – Win
- Liverpool vs Newcastle United: Newcastle United – Win (Draw No Bet)
- Aston Villa vs Brentford: Aston Villa – Win
- Manchester United vs Fulham: Under 3.0 Goals
- Tottenham vs Manchester City: Over 8.5 Shots on Target
Leeds vs Arsenal: Arsenal – Win
Odds:
- American: -175
- Decimal: 1.57
- Fractional: 57/100
Win probability metrics give Arsenal a 66% chance of winning this match, and I am backing the Gunners to do just that.
To view match win probability percentages for every Premier League match, click here!
Arsenal continue to welcome players back from injury, with the likes of Kai Havertz making his first start in what feels like forever during midweek UEFA Champions League action. Arsenal fell 3-2 in dramatic and heartbreaking fashion last week against Michael Carrick’s Manchester United side, but with the title race heating up, they will need to respond by picking up all three points here.
Arsenal won the reverse fixture 5-0 earlier in the season. While I do not expect the scoreline to mirror that result, I do believe Arsenal will flex their muscles in this matchup and come away with a crucial victory.
Pick: Arsenal – Win
Liverpool vs Newcastle United: Newcastle United – Win (Draw No Bet)
Odds:
- American: +225
- Decimal: 3.25
- Fractional: 9/4
This is a high-risk, high-reward selection. Newcastle’s schedule at the moment is relentless. The Magpies are coming off a 1-1 draw in the UEFA Champions League this past week at the Parc des Princes in Paris. Prior to that, they suffered a loss against Aston Villa last weekend in the Premier League. Following this match, Newcastle will travel to Manchester to face City in the second leg of the EFL Cup semi-finals. The fixture congestion has been gruelling, and fatigue could begin to set in.
With that said, Newcastle have already produced some stunning results this season. When the Magpies face top opposition, they often seem to rise to the occasion and deliver strong performances.
For Newcastle, this is very much a statement match for Alexander Isak. Emotions will be high, and it will be up to the Newcastle attackers to take advantage of their chances. Liverpool’s defence is stretched at the moment, with Ibrahima Konaté, Joe Gomez, Jeremie Frimpong, Conor Bradley, and Leoni all unavailable for selection at the back. Because of this, I do believe Newcastle can generate some high-quality chances – they will simply need to be clinical.
The Draw No Bet market refunds wagers in the event of a draw, effectively removing one outcome from the equation. I like Newcastle in this spot, though a draw is certainly a realistic possibility.
Pick: Newcastle United – Win (Draw No Bet)
Aston Villa vs Brentford: Aston Villa – Win
Odds:
- American: +100
- Decimal: 2.00
- Fractional: 1/1
For our full pre-match analysis highlighting the key components to this match alongside why I am backing Aston Villa to win – click HERE!
Pick: Aston Villa – Win
Manchester United vs Fulham: Under 3.0 Goals
Odds:
- American: -133
- Decimal: 1.75
- Fractional: 3/4
Manchester United have been sensational under Michael Carrick so far. They are coming off a 2-0 win against Manchester City, followed by a dramatic 3-2 victory over league leaders Arsenal last weekend. Fulham, on the other hand, have been strong in front of goal recently, scoring nine goals across their last five matches. So why the under?
I believe this match could develop into something of a stalemate. From a coaching perspective, Manchester United have excelled against sides like Manchester City and Arsenal who look to dominate possession, press high, and build out from the back. While Fulham share some of these traits, I do not believe they will approach this match in the same way.
Fulham are travelling to Old Trafford to face a red-hot and rejuvenated Manchester United side. I expect them to avoid inviting United’s press, instead looking to move the ball up the pitch and out of danger as quickly as possible. United will likely control the majority of possession, limiting how often the match becomes vertically stretched.
Fulham have shown a 4-2-4 pressing structure at times, but again, I expect their pressing to be more conservative here, with limited numbers committed forward. These are areas where Manchester United have thrived early on under Carrick. We have yet to truly see this United side consistently break down a sustained low block.
Given the uncertainty and the expectation of a defensive Fulham approach leading to a cagey contest, I am backing the Asian line under 3.0 goals.
Pick: Under 3.0 Goals
Tottenham vs Manchester City: Over 8.5 Shots on Target
Odds:
- American: -139
- Decimal: 1.72
- Fractional: 18/25
Thomas Frank’s Spurs side has been criticised often this season for their lack of ability in attack and a lack of ability to create chances. With that being said, Tottenham have averaged 6.60 shots on target per match in their last five outings in all competitions. Throughout that same time, Tottenham have allowed an average of 3.60 shots on target against.
As for Manchester City, they are unbeaten in their previous two matches in all competitions following their shock back-to-back defeats to both Manchester United and Bodo/Glimt. Tottenham defeated City 2-0 earlier this season. While City secured the signing of Marc Guéhi this month, they remain short on available centre-halves, with Rúben Dias, John Stones, and Joško Gvardiol all unavailable.
This is a matchup where I expect chances to be created at both ends. With the shot profiles of both sides and the defensive absences for City, I like the total shots on target line of 8.5 to go over.
Pick: Over 8.5 Shots on Target
All data provided via FotMob.
Disclaimer: The betting picks and analysis shared are for informational purposes only and are not guarantees of outcome or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and only risk money you are willing to lose.
