Matchday 19 in the Premier League brings another round of midweek action, with six matches taking place on Tuesday, December 30. The marquee fixture of the week sees third-place Aston Villa travel to the Emirates Stadium to face league leaders Arsenal. The New Year is then rung in on Thursday, January 1, 2026, with four more Premier League matches, including Brentford hosting their former manager Thomas Frank and Tottenham.
Below, we break down our best bets and same game parlays/bet builders for Matchweek 19, focusing on value, trends, and key match dynamics across the Premier League.
Contents:
- Chelsea vs Bournemouth: Adam Smith (BOU) & Adrien Truffert (BOU) – Player Prop Double
- West Ham vs Brighton: Over 7.5 Shots on Target + Both Teams to Receive a Card
- Arsenal vs Aston Villa: Bet Builder / Same Game Parlay
- Liverpool & Manchester City – Both Teams to Win Double
- Brentford vs Tottenham: Under 2.5 Goals
Chelsea vs Bournemouth: Adam Smith (BOU) & Adrien Truffert (BOU) – Player Prop Double
- Adam Smith (BOU) 1+ Fouls Committed
- Adrien Truffert (BOU) 2+ Tackles
Odds:
- American: -105
- Decimal: 1.95
- Fractional: 19/20
Adam Smith (BOU) 1+ Fouls Committed:
Adam Smith has had limited playing time for Bournemouth this season as the Cherries captain has been largely hampered by injuries this season. Adam Smith has averaged 1.72 fouls per 90 minutes this season so far in the Premier League.
Bournemouth faced Chelsea at home just three weeks ago, and in that match Smith committed two fouls. Chelsea’s pace out wide is always a threat, with Alejandro Garnacho or Jamie Gittens regularly bombing down the left flank. At 34 years old, Smith remains a solid full-back, but he has clearly lost some pace. With Chelsea’s threat on the break down their left side, I expect Smith to be put under pressure and commit at least one foul in this match.
Adrien Truffert (BOU) 2+ Tackles:
Adrien Truffert has been excellent for Bournemouth at left-back this season. The French defender has played 17.5 of a possible 18 ninety-minute matches in the Premier League, starting every game for the Cherries. Truffert is averaging 1.54 tackles per 90 minutes, but he should be called into action far more frequently in this fixture.
With the likes of Pedro Neto or wonderkid Estêvão occupying Chelsea’s right wing, their attacking play – particularly out wide – is both dangerous and heavily relied upon. Given my expectation that Chelsea will target the Bournemouth flanks, Truffert should be involved repeatedly in defensive duels. When Bournemouth last faced Chelsea three weeks ago, Truffert recorded two tackles and won 67% of his ground duels. I expect him to defend Neto aggressively but fairly, and to reach at least two tackles in this match.
Pick: Adam Smith 1+ Fouls Committed + Adrien Truffert 2+ Tackles
*Pick is voided if either player does not start
West Ham vs Brighton: Over 7.5 Shots on Target + Both Teams to Receive a Card
Odds:
- American: -125
- Decimal: 1.80
- Fractional: 4/5
Both sides are coming into this fixture on poor runs of form and both will be looking to get back into the win column. Brighton have struggled on the road this season while West Ham have heavily struggled at home. West Ham are winless in their last seven matches – Brighton winless in their last five.
When West Ham and Brighton met three weeks ago, the match ended in a 1-1 draw. That match saw a total of 9 shots on target. West Ham have averaged 3.33 shots on target per match while Brighton have averaged 4.17 shots on target per match in the Premier League this season. With that, West Ham have allowed a league high average of 5.17 shots on target per match while Brighton have allowed an average of 4.00 shots on target per match. I see the alternative line of 7.5 going over in this match.
As for bookings, Brighton have averaged 2.44 bookings per match while West Ham have averaged 1.67 cards per match. Michael Salisbury will be the referee in charge of this match; Salisbury has handed out an average of 4.33 cards per match over his six matches in charge in the Premier League this season. With both sides so badly needing to find themselves a win, I expect tactical fouls and hard challenges to be a factor in this match with both sides being shown at least one card.
Pick: Over 7.5 Shots on Target + Both Teams to Receive a Card
Arsenal vs Aston Villa: Bet Builder / Same Game Parlay
- Over 5.5 Shots on Target
- Martín Zubimendi (ARS) 1+ Tackles
- Ian Maatsen (AV) 2+ Tackles
- Morgan Rogers (AV) 1+ Fouls Committed
Odds:
- American: +170
- Decimal: 2.70
- Fractional: 17/10
Over 5.5 Shots on Target:
This is a first-versus-third matchup in the Premier League. When these two sides met in early December, the match produced a total of 15 shots on target. Arsenal are averaging 4.67 shots on target per match this season, while Aston Villa average 4.39.
Arsenal will be without both Timber and White on their right flank, which is likely to force Declan Rice into a right-back role. That adjustment should allow Aston Villa more opportunities to attack down Arsenal’s right side. Given the attacking quality on both teams, I expect the alternative line of 5.5 shots on target to clear comfortably.
Martín Zubimendi (ARS) 1+ Tackles:
Zubimendi has averaged 0.90 tackles per 90 minutes this season, however, what I have my eye on is the way that Zubimendi counter-presses when Arsenal lose possession in attack paired with Aston Villa’s central line-to-line counter-attacking scheme. When Villa look to counter, they look to play through their central midfielders to connect play to their attackers. Zubimendi counter-presses aggressively when needed and I expect Zubimendi to win at least one tackle in this way in this match.
Ian Maatsen (AV) 2+ Tackles:
Ian Maatsen has recently become Unai Emery’s preferred option at left-back, and for good reason. The young Dutch defender has impressed both in possession and defensively. Maatsen is averaging 2.35 tackles per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, and with Arsenal frequently progressing play down their right flank, he will be tested repeatedly by Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard. While it will be a tough battle, I expect Maatsen to hold his own and reach the 2+ tackles mark.
Morgan Rogers (AV) 1+ Fouls Committed:
Morgan Rogers is averaging 1.24 fouls committed per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season and can be prone to rushing into challenges. With Arsenal’s midfielders so influential in linking play and driving possession forward, I expect Rogers to commit at least one foul in this match.
Pick: Bet Builder / Same Game Parlay
*Individual legs are voided if player does not start
Liverpool & Manchester City – Both Teams to Win Double
Odds:
- American: +115
- Decimal: 2.15
- Fractional: 23/20
Liverpool – Win (vs Leeds United):
Liverpool host Leeds United at Anfield in the reverse fixture this week, with both sides having shared the points in a thrilling 3-3 draw just over three weeks ago.
Since that meeting, both teams have remained unbeaten. Liverpool have won four consecutive matches across all competitions, while Leeds have gone three matches without defeat, picking up a 1-1 draw away at Brentford, a 4-1 home win against Crystal Palace, and a 1-1 draw away at Sunderland last time out.
Liverpool look rejuvenated in recent weeks, with notable wins against Inter Milan at the San Siro, Brighton, Tottenham away, and Wolves this past weekend. While there are still imperfections in their performances, the Reds are clearly trending upward. With the backing of the Anfield crowd, I expect Liverpool to correct the mistakes of their last meeting and secure all three points here.
Win probability metrics give Liverpool a 70% chance of victory.
Manchester City – Win (vs Sunderland):
Manchester City have now won eight consecutive matches in all competitions, including a 2-1 victory over Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League and a 3-0 win over Sunderland earlier this month. City have moved to within two points of league leaders Arsenal and show no signs of slowing down, with the title firmly in their sights.
In their previous meeting, Manchester City dominated possession with 64%, registered six shots on target to Sunderland’s one, and cruised to a 3-0 win. With Sunderland heavily depleted due to multiple key players departing for AFCON, I do not see them being able to contain City in this fixture.
Win probability metrics give Manchester City a 63% chance of victory.
Based on those probabilities, Liverpool and Manchester City both to win carries an implied probability of 44%. To view the win probability percentages for all Premier League matches each week, click here.
Pick: Liverpool (vs Leeds United) & Manchester City (vs Sunderland) – Both Teams to Win
Brentford vs Tottenham: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds:
- American: -110
- Decimal: 1.90
- Fractional: 9/10
Tottenham have struggled in attack regularly this season. The primary reason behind Tottenham’s attacking woes has been their struggle and inability to successfully build-up and progress play into dangerous attacking positions. Spurs have had a great deal of issues when trying to move the ball from their midfielders to their attackers in progression phases due to the large gap between their midfield and attacking lines. Tottenham look to prioritize their outside lanes in progression but can oftentimes be outnumbered wide and forced to retreat while still in possession.
For Brentford, when these two sides last met, Tottenham were able to successfully defend Brentford counter-attacks by dropping Bentancur deeper into a preliminary defensive position when attacking. With Bentancur dropping, it gives Tottenham more numbers defensively in transition centrally which took away a large amount of danger from the Brentford counter-attack. I believe that Brentford may struggle on the counter again here while Thomas Frank deploys a rest defensive scheme that negates an opposition centralized counter-attack.
When Spurs find a lead, they tend to be much happier to sit off and defend tight and compact, getting 11 men behind the ball and not allowing their opposition to find space between their lines. Tottenham have proven to be a difficult side to break down multiple times this season once they find themselves with a lead – take their most recent match against Crystal Palace as a prime example.
For these reasons, I believe that this match will be a low scoring affair.
Pick: Under 2.5 Goals
All data provided via fbref.
Disclaimer: The betting picks and analysis shared are for informational purposes only and are not guarantees of outcome or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and only risk money you are willing to lose.
