Matchday 17 of the English Premier League is upon us as league leaders Arsenal head north to Hill Dickinson Park to face Everton in what should be an entertaining clash. Here’s our full pre-match analysis and breakdown, including team news, player injuries, predicted starting lineups, a tactical preview, key stats, an Everton vs Arsenal prediction, and betting picks.
Odds:
| Everton | Draw | Arsenal | |
| American | +450 | +300 | -167 |
| Decimal | 5.50 | 4.00 | 1.60 |
| Fractional | 9/2 | 3/1 | 3/5 |
Previous Five Head-to-Head Matches
Arsenal have historically dominated this fixture, but Everton were able to hold the Gunners to a draw in both meetings last season. The Toffees will once again be looking to take points off this Arsenal side, while the Gunners will be aiming to claim all three and head into the holiday period with a comfortable lead at the top of the table.
Everton Injuries & Team News
Everton come into this match after a 2–0 defeat away to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. Despite that result, they have maintained a solid home record this season, winning four of their eight matches at Hill Dickinson Park and losing just twice.
Jack Grealish and Kiernan Drewsbury-Hall are both believed to have picked up injuries against Chelsea. Drewsbury-Hall is likely to be sidelined until the new year, while Grealish’s issue is not thought to be serious. However, his availability for Saturday’s match remains in doubt.
Everton will also be without two key players for the foreseeable future, as Iliman Ndiaye and Idrissa Gueye depart to represent their countries at AFCON.
Injuries: Kiernan Drewsbury-Hall, Jack Grealish, Jarrad Branthwaite, Séamus Coleman, Merlin Röhl, Iliman Ndiaye (AFCON), Idrissa Gueye (AFCON)
Arsenal Injuries & Team News
Arsenal were made to work harder than expected in their last outing against Wolves, narrowly securing a 2–1 victory at the Emirates Stadium. The Gunners failed to register a single shot on target until after the hour mark in that match and will be looking for a marked improvement when they travel to Merseyside.
Ben White has unfortunately been sidelined once again after only recently returning from a three-month injury layoff. The defender is expected to return sometime in the new year.
On a positive note for Arsenal, no players will be departing for AFCON this year.
Injuries: Ben White, Cristhian Mosquera, Gabriel Magalhães, Max Dowman, Kai Havertz
Predicted Starting Lineups
Everton Lineup Notes
With Guéye and Ndiaye both absent due to their AFCON commitments with Senegal, Iroegbunam and Dibling appear to be the most likely candidates to step into the vacant roles.
Grealish remains a question mark following the minor injury he picked up against Chelsea. Everton will be hopeful that he can recover in time to feature on Saturday, but his availability remains uncertain.
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall was unfortunately forced off against Chelsea and will be unavailable for Everton’s clash with Arsenal. Youngster Carlos Alcaraz will be looking to seize this opportunity for increased minutes and a potential start.
Arsenal Lineup Notes
Following Ben White’s injury setback, Jurriën Timber is expected to slot back into the right fullback role. William Saliba and Piero Hincapié appear the most likely pairing in central defence, while Riccardo Calafiori returns from his one-match suspension to take up the left fullback position.
In attack, Viktor Gyökeres will be eager to get his name back on the scoresheet. Gabriel Martinelli may be the preferred option on the left wing due to his pace, although both Eberechi Eze and Leandro Trossard remain viable alternatives in that position
Match Preview
This is a crucial fixture for both sides. For Arsenal, heading into Christmas with at least a five-point lead at the top of the Premier League table would be an ideal scenario. For Everton, any points gained here would represent a strong result, with the Toffees currently on the fringes of genuine European qualification contention this season.
Everton’s Defensive Setup vs Arsenal’s Attack
Out of possession, Everton typically operate in either a 4-2-3-1 shape or a 4-4-1-1 when they are looking to push their opposition back and defend in a higher block. [See images below]
The 4-4-1-1 shape is formed when Everton’s two holding midfielders step higher into the midfield line, with the wingers dropping slightly deeper. The central attacking midfielder pushes up to apply pressure on the opposition’s back line, supporting the centre forward in the press.
In contrast, Everton’s 4-2-3-1 shape often leaves notable gaps between their defensive and midfield lines. This was exploited effectively by Chelsea in Everton’s most recent match, with João Pedro frequently dropping into those spaces to receive the ball and cause problems.
When defending, Everton’s centre-backs are often tasked with tightly marking an opposition central attacker who drops into the space in front of the back line. João Pedro was able to pull Michael Keane out of position on multiple occasions, opening up space for runners in behind. While this movement is more naturally suited to Mikel Merino than Viktor Gyökeres, Arsenal will still look to create line-breaking opportunities regardless of who occupies that central role. This is particularly where Bukayo Saka and/or Timber will look to exploit space in behind. [See images below]
When Everton settle into a 4-2-3-1 during sustained opposition possession, it is not uncommon for one or both holding midfielders to drop closer to the back line. This creates space between Everton’s midfield lines, an area Arsenal will look to exploit. [See images below]
With Arsenal’s attacking emphasis down the right flank, this pocket of space is where Martin Ødegaard, Martín Zubimendi, and Saka will look to combine. [See image below]
This is precisely how Malo Gusto was able to create Cole Palmer’s goal for Chelsea in Everton’s previous match.
Everton typically defend narrowly to congest central areas and deny access to high-value scoring zones. Arsenal, meanwhile, attack with width and focus much of their progression down the right side through Saka, Timber, and Ødegaard. Numerical advantages in the right outside lane are likely, forcing Everton’s defenders into difficult decisions between stepping wide to engage or holding their positions centrally and conceding overloads out wide. [See image below]
Arsenal’s Attacking Woes
Arsenal edged Wolves 2–1 at the Emirates in their last outing, but it was a disappointing attacking display from the Gunners. They struggled to create meaningful chances and failed to register a shot on target until after the hour mark. Wolves found success by maintaining their defensive structure, avoiding aggressive man-marking, and forcing Arsenal to circulate the ball around the perimeter.
Arsenal will be looking to produce a much sharper attacking performance against Everton this weekend.
Everton, in turn, may look to replicate Wolves’ approach by remaining compact, disciplined, and reluctant to commit too many players to pressing or man-marking in midfield
Viktor Gyökeres
Arsenal have struggled at times to get Gyökeres involved in dangerous areas. Gyökeres is most effective when he can make runs in behind the back line and attack defenders using his pace and physicality in duels.
Mikel Merino, on the other hand, excels at dropping between the lines to receive the ball. This could be a match where Merino might offer a different attacking dynamic, but Mikel Arteta is unlikely to drop Gyökeres from the starting lineup, as doing so could further impact the striker’s confidence.
If Arsenal are struggling to create chances and do not hold a lead in the latter stages, Merino could be introduced to influence the game with his ability to operate between opposition lines
Everton’s Counter-Attacking Possibilities
When Arsenal dominate possession without finding a breakthrough, they tend to push progressively higher up the pitch as a unit. Their attackers pin the opposition back line, while central midfielders and fullbacks advance into advanced areas.
In these moments, Arsenal can become vulnerable to quick, direct counter-attacks, with limited numbers positioned to defend transitions. Everton will be looking to exploit these situations whenever opportunities arise.
Everton’s Build-Up vs Arsenal’s Press
When Arsenal dominate possession without finding a breakthrough, they tend to push progressively higher up the pitch as a unit. Their attackers pin the opposition back line, while central midfielders and fullbacks advance into advanced areas.
In these moments, Arsenal can become vulnerable to quick, direct counter-attacks, with limited numbers positioned to defend transitions. Everton will be looking to exploit these situations whenever opportunities arise. [See images below]
Everton must be cautious in their build-up to avoid being forced into rushed long balls and surrendering possession cheaply.
O’Brien also likes to push higher up the pitch during Everton’s build-up, offering an additional attacking outlet. However, Arsenal’s pressing scheme may pin him deeper, limiting his ability to contribute in advanced areas.
Everton’s Attacking Structure
During their progression phase, Everton often advance the ball through the wide channels before quickly switching play to the opposite side, where fewer opposition defenders are positioned. These switches are executed either through central midfielders in the middle third or via longer diagonal balls into wide areas.
Arsenal’s defenders will need to avoid overcommitting to one side of the pitch during Everton’s build-up phases.
In attack, Everton typically form a 3-2-5 structure, with their attacking midfielder and one fullback pushing high to join the forward line. [See image below]
Everton having an attacking line of five with O’Brien pushing high and wide will either draw Arsenal’s left winger deeper in defensive duties or force Zubimendi or Rice to drop in with the back line.
While in their 3-2-5 shape, Everton look to have their holding midfielders join the attack in the outside lanes, looking to create numerical overloads and open up opportunities for crosses.
Everton also look to play through opposition lines in the half-spaces of the pitch with their wingers dropping into pockets of space to receive. [See image below]
Once Everton’s winger receives the ball in space, Everton’s other attacking players can make runs in behind their opposition’s back line for a ball to be played through. [See images below]
This approach could prove effective against Arsenal’s centre-back pairing of Saliba and Hincapié, who are still developing chemistry due to limited minutes together. Forcing them to track multiple runs may open up opportunities for the Toffees.
Overall, Everton do have a pathway to taking points if they remain compact defensively and difficult to break down. Capitalising on counter-attacking situations when Arsenal’s defensive line is high will be key. For Arsenal, Arteta will be demanding a far sharper attacking performance than last weekend, and the Gunners certainly possess the firepower to generate chances.
Everton vs Arsenal Prediction
As outlined, Everton do have a chance to come away with points if they remain disciplined. However, with a creative presence like Ndiaye absent and central midfielders such as Dewsbury-Hall and Guéye unavailable, Arsenal may ultimately prove too strong.
My prediction for this match is a 2–0 victory for Arsenal.
Betting Picks
Pick: Arsenal – Win + Arsenal – Team to Get Most Shots
Odds:
- American: +100
- Decimal: 2.00
- Fractional: 1/1
As stated, I do believe that Arsenal will win this match and will do so by dominating possession and creating opportunities for themselves by pulling Everton players out of their shape and creating openings.
Arsenal have averaged 14.44 shot attempts per match in the Premier League this season while Everton have only averaged 10.56. On the defensive side of the ball, Arsenal have a Premier League low of allowing their opposition only 7.44 shot attempts per match while Everton have allowed 13.06.
I see Arsenal having far more shot attempts than Everton while also finishing some of their chances and walking away from Hill Dickinson Park with all three points.
Pick: Arsenal – Win + Arsenal – Most Shots
Data provided via fbref.
Disclaimer: The betting picks and analysis shared are for informational purposes only and are not guarantees of outcome or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and only risk money you are willing to lose.
