The midweek Premier League fixtures bring spectators a compelling clash between 4th and 5th place, as Aston Villa travel south to face Brighton. Here’s our full pre-match analysis and breakdown, including team news, player injuries, predicted starting lineups, tactical preview, key stats, Brighton vs Aston Villa prediction, and betting tips.
Odds:
| Brighton | Draw | Aston Villa | |
| American | +115 | +250 | +240 |
| Decimal | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| Fractional | 23/20 | 5/2 | 12/5 |
Previous Five Head-to-Head Matches
Aston Villa have had the upper hand in recent years over Brighton, winning three of their last five head-to-head meetings, including a 3-0 win last season and a 6-1 thrashing in 2023. The Seagulls will be looking to right their wrongs in this enticing matchup.
Brighton Injuries and Team News
Brighton will be looking to build on their last outing against Nottingham Forest. The Seagulls claimed a 2-0 victory at the weekend and are now unbeaten in four consecutive matches.
Georgiño Rutter was taken off after a head injury during the win over Nottingham Forest, as Brighton’s staff initially feared a potential issue. Following the match, Fabián Hürzeler told the media that Rutter is good to go, confirming the scare was a false alarm.
James Milner and Kaoru Mitoma are close to returning, Hürzeler said in his post-match press conference, but this match may come too soon for both players.
Injuries: James Milner, Kairou Mitoma, Solly March, Adam Webster
Aston Villa Injuries and Team News
Aston Villa enter this match having won seven of their previous eight Premier League fixtures. Villa are also on a five-match winning streak in all competitions following their 1-0 win over Wolves at the weekend.
Unai Emery will be pleased with his short injury list, although Ross Barkley was forced to be substituted after sustaining an injury shortly after coming on as a substitute himself.
Injuries: Tyrone Mings, Ross Barkley
Predicted Starting Lineups
Brighton Lineup Notes
De Cuyper and Ferdi Kadıoğlu played extremely well down the left side last time out, with De Cuyper occupying the left-wing role. With Mitoma likely to remain unavailable, I expect Hürzeler to once again deploy De Cuyper and Kadıoğlu in tandem.
Carlos Baleba did not start against Nottingham Forest, but I expect the young midfielder to return to the starting XI here.
Aston Villa Lineup Notes
Villa’s Ollie Watkins has struggled so far this season. I expect Unai Emery to try to bolster his attack in this match by starting both Watkins and Donyell Malen, while also including attack-minded Morgan Rogers in the lineup. Amadou Onana could start ahead of Boubacar Kamara or Youri Tielemans for rotation purposes, but with Kamara and Tielemans playing well, I am opting for the pair to once again start in midfield.
Match Preview
Hopes will be high for neutral viewers that this match will bring action and strong entertainment. Aston Villa sit 4th in the Premier League, just two points above Brighton in 5th place. A lot could potentially be on the line come the end of the season for these two European-competition hopefuls.
Aston Villa’s Defensive Shape vs Brighton’s Attack
Aston Villa defend in a 4-4-2 shape with a flat midfield four. Villa’s back line defends with width, while their midfield line defends with a more narrow approach. [See image below]
Villa’s defensive shape transitions when needed into a 5-4-1, with the outside midfielder dropping into the back line to form a line of five, while the secondary striker drops deeper into the midfield line. [See image below]
Brighton attack in a 3-2-5 shape, with Ferdi Kadıoğlu pushing high to join his winger on the outside. Kadıoğlu will sometimes push high and wide, inverting his same-side winger, while at other times he will invert himself and leave his winger wide in the outside lane. Brighton’s left-sided CDM will often drop into the back line to cover his left-back pushing high, depending on whether or not Mats Wieffer inverts into a midfield role. On paper, Aston Villa will do the majority of their defensive work in their 4-4-2 shape against Brighton’s attack-minded 3-2-5. [See image below]
Brighton frequently look to attack with width in the outside lanes of the pitch. With Kaoru Mitoma out, their current wing-play setup is as follows:
Brighton’s right wing is occupied by Yankuba Minteh, who acts as Brighton’s creative force, dribbling at defenders 1-v-1 and looking to progress the play. Minteh will try to play passes into space centrally or deliver whipped or driven crosses into the penalty area. Lucas Digne will have his hands full with Minteh’s pace and ability.
Maxim De Cuyper scored the type of goal Brighton often look for when attacking down the right in their match against Nottingham Forest. The ball was played wide into the outside lane to Minteh; Forest shifted to that side of the pitch as Minteh found a central passing option, who then slipped the ball through for an unmarked De Cuyper arriving from the left. Expect Brighton to attempt this passing pattern again against Villa when Villa shift heavily to one side.
Down the left wing, Brighton look to create numerical overloads. With Brighton’s left-back, whether it be De Cuyper or Kadıoğlu, pushing high to join the attack, Brighton can target the opposition right-back. Depending on the positioning of Brighton’s left-sided holding midfielder, they may join the attack in the outside lane, dragging their marker with them to create central space while forming a 3-v-2 overload on the wing. [See images below]
Aston Villa will need to drop their left midfielder into the back line frequently to help contain Brighton’s wing play down the left. While Villa will look to contain Brighton by dropping into their 5-4-1 defensive shape, doing so will naturally limit their counter-attacking potential.
In central areas, space can be found between Aston Villa’s lines when Villa’s central midfielders follow their markers. This is a route Brighton will likely try to exploit through Danny Welbeck, who consistently looks to drop between opposition lines to receive line-breaking passes from the back line or from midfield. [See images below]
Villa’s midfielders will have to know the risk that they are taking when they look to step and cover their marker, knowing Brighton’s ability to play line-breaking passes.
Press
Aston Villa will look to press Brighton in their build-up, while Brighton will try to build out from the back and beat Villa’s press. When pressing, space opens behind Villa’s midfield line because their central midfielders look to man-mark Brighton’s holding midfielders. Villa must be wary not to allow central line-breaking passes from Brighton’s back line into their attackers.
Minteh vs Digne
I am expecting Lucas Digne to start for Villa in this match, as his defensive attributes are superior to Ian Maatsen’s. However, Maatsen does offer more pace, which could potentially earn him the start.
Minteh’s pace will be a major factor, and Brighton often look to deliver long balls over the top for him to run onto. If Digne starts, expect Brighton to play long toward Minteh frequently, where he can outpace his marker and create dangerous attacking opportunities.
Counter-Attacking Opportunities
Both sides will have counter-attacking opportunities in this match. With Brighton’s 3-2-5 shape, they can at times be left with only two defenders when they push high with numbers in attack. Aston Villa look to counter centrally, and if Brighton are left with a back two, Villa could exploit the space.
For Villa’s counter-attack, they typically progress through the middle, moving from their back line to their midfielders before feeding the attackers. Playing into their midfielders draws opposition players toward the ball, opening space for the front attackers. Brighton counter-press aggressively – it is part of Fabián Hürzeler’s identity. When Brighton step up to counter-press Villa’s midfielders, space can open behind them for Villa’s attackers to exploit.
For Brighton, their direct counter-attacking route is a long ball over the top into the wide area for Minteh. As noted, Minteh is likely to have a pace advantage over his marker and could create strong counter-attacking chances.
At times, Aston Villa can also be caught with only two defenders when both Digne and Matty Cash push forward. If possession is won while Villa’s full-backs are high, Danny Welbeck will drop into the space in front of Villa’s defenders to receive before linking play for his wingers or attacking midfielder running beyond.
Counter-attacking moments in transition could be what ultimately unlocks either side in a match where both teams prefer to hold possession.
The Battle in Midfield
Brighton’s midfield trio will look to outnumber Villa centrally when progressing the ball and when Brighton have possession in Villa’s half. [See image below]
Brighton will look to take advantage of their numbers in the central areas of the pitch in progression and in attack.
Brighton’s defensive shape is that of a 4-5-1 with their wingers dropping into the midfield line. [See image below]
Aston Villa look to create a boxed (or trapezoid) midfield in progression and attack, giving them a 4-v-3 situation in the centre of the park. [See images below]
The midfield battle should be an enticing one, and the balance of the match could hinge on it. Both sides will attempt to create numerical advantages in central areas when moving forward.
Brighton vs Aston Villa Prediction
Both sides will find opportunities in this match, and the winner will be determined by whoever capitalizes on those chances. If I had to pick a scoreline, I would predict a 2-1 win for Brighton. Brighton have been strong at home, while Villa have struggled at times away. Villa tend to concede dangerous chances from wide attacks, which is exactly where Brighton thrive, giving Brighton a tactical edge heading into this one – and it will be up to Unai Emery to solve that puzzle.
Betting Tips
Pick 1: Both Teams to Score
Odds:
- American: -143
- Decimal: 1.70
- Fractional: 7/10
I see both sides creating scoring opportunities in this match for a multitude of reasons. Both teams can be dangerous on the counter or from set pieces, both will look to create overloads in different attacking areas of the pitch, and both can be exposed by good interplay. I am backing both sides to find the back of the net in what should be a hard-fought contest.
Pick: Both Teams to Score
Pick 2:
- Boubacar Kamara (AV) 2+ Fouls Drawn
- Youri Tielemans (AV) 1+ Fouls Committed
Boubacar Kamara (AV) 2+ Fouls Drawn: This pick will depend on Aston Villa’s starting lineup and who features for them in midfield. Picks are voided if either player does not start.
Boubacar Kamara has been amazing for Aston Villa and his ability on the ball often forces opponents to foul him. Kamara is often used in Villa’s counter-attacking play through the middle as well as their attacking play high up the pitch with Kamara often playing as a deep-lying pivot, ready to rotate the ball around the pitch. So far this Premier League season, Kamara has drawn an average of 2.09 fouls per 90 minutes. Brighton currently average the 4th most fouls committed per match with 12.0 on average. With Kamara’s ability paired with his involvement in Villa’s style of play, I am expecting Brighton players to be forced into fouls against the Villa midfielder.
Youri Tielemans (AV) 1+ Fouls Committed: Another prop focused on the battle in the midfield area of the pitch. Tielemans has a tendency of getting caught out of position and making rash challenges on opponents when he is looking to react. Tielemans has averaged 1.82 fouls committed per 90 minutes so far this season.
Data collected via fbref.
Pick: Boubacar Kamara (AV) 2+ Fouls Drawn + Youri Tielemans (AV) 1+ Fouls Committed
*Pick is voided if either player does not start
Disclaimer: The betting picks and analysis shared are for informational purposes only and are not guarantees of outcome or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and only risk money you are willing to lose.
