Matchweek 15 of the Premier League delivers another exciting slate of fixtures, headlined by Aston Villa vs Arsenal as the league-leaders travel to Villa Park on Saturday. With major clubs like Chelsea and Liverpool also in action this weekend, bettors can expect plenty of drama, goals, and value across the board. Here, we break down our top betting picks and predictions for this week’s Premier League matches.
Contents:
- Aston Villa vs Arsenal: Saka (ARS) – Player Prop Double
- Bournemouth vs Chelsea: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals
- Saturday Goals Total Double
- Brighton vs West Ham: Brighton – Win
- Brighton vs West Ham: Over 3.5 Cards + Both Teams to Receive a Card
- Wolves vs Manchester United: Manchester United – Win
Aston Villa vs Arsenal: Saka (ARS) – Player Prop Double
- Saka (ARS) 1+ Shots on Target
- Saka (ARS) 1+ Fouls Drawn
Odds:
- American: -139
- Decimal: 1.72
- Fractional: 18/25
With Martin Ødegaard back available for Arsenal, the Gunners’ right side of attack is only further strengthened. Eberechi Eze did a wonderful job holding down the right side of midfield while Ødegaard was sidelined, but Arsenal will be happy to have their captain back from injury.
Ødegaard and Saka’s creativity as a pairing has always been dangerous, and with the captain returning, Saka should only benefit. So far this season, Bukayo Saka has averaged 1.21 shots on target per 90 minutes and has recorded 1+ shot on target in each of his last five Premier League matches, as well as five straight across all competitions.
Saka also posts strong numbers when it comes to drawing fouls, averaging 2.63 fouls drawn per 90 minutes and recording 1+ foul drawn in four of his last five matches in all competitions. With Ødegaard back in action, Arsenal should look to play slightly more down the right-hand side than they already do. Lucas Digne or Ian Maatsen will have their hands full with Saka throughout this match.
Pick: Bukayo Saka (ARS) 1+ Shots on Target & 1+ Fouls Drawn
*Pick is voided if player does not start
Bournemouth vs Chelsea: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals
Odds:
- American: -120
- Decimal: 1.83
- Fractional: 83/100
Bournemouth are sinking. Their hot start has stalled, and they are now on a five-match winless run, losing four and drawing one. Meanwhile, Chelsea’s title charge lasted about six days before they slammed the brakes, dropping all three points in embarrassing fashion to Leeds in midweek. Cole Palmer returned from injury off the bench but looked a little rusty, which is to be expected.
Across Bournemouth’s last five matches – all without a win – they have averaged an xG of 1.72 per match, while conceding an average xG of 1.49. They have not kept a clean sheet in five straight matches and have allowed an average of 2.60 goals per game.
Chelsea have scored in each of their last five Premier League matches. Their defending has looked good recently, excluding the loss to Leeds where they conceded three, but they will again be without Moisés Caicedo, who remains suspended. Caicedo’s absence was noticeable, and Chelsea looked out of sorts defensively.
I’m expecting an open, attacking match with plenty of goals… at least, we can hope.
Pick: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals
Saturday Goals Total Double
- Everton vs Nottingham Forest: Under 3.0 Goals
- Leeds vs Liverpool: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds:
- American: +125
- Decimal: 2.25
- Fractional: 5/4
Everton vs Nottingham Forest: Everton have been good defensively in recent history (excluding their horrid match against Newcastle United). Everton have only conceded in 2 of their last 5 matches. Everton have looked good defensively.
Forest have only averaged 1.07 expected goals per match in their previous three Premier League outings and have not looked exceptionally dangerous in attack. Forest will look to buckle down defensively and maintain a low-block shape in this match. Everton will look to break down Dyche’s Forest side and it will take time. I am expecting the total goals in this match to be low, but I am taking an alternative line.
Leeds vs Liverpool: Liverpool have been abysmal in recent history. At the same time, Leeds have looked a real threat in attack when going forward, scoring in 4 of their last 5 matches, including three goals for against Chelsea and two goals for against Manchester City. I think that this match will see plenty of goals and that the scoreline will go over the total.
Pick: Everton vs Nottingham Forest: Under 3.0 Goals + Leeds vs Liverpool: Over 2.5 Goals
Brighton vs West Ham: Brighton – Win
Odds:
- American: -175
- Decimal: 1.57
- Fractional: 57/100
Brighton are coming off a disappointing 4-3 loss to Aston Villa in midweek after going 2-0 up inside 30 minutes. That defeat snapped a four-match unbeaten run. Brighton have been in good form overall, and West Ham simply haven’t been up to par this season. Their defensive struggles continue, and Brighton should look to put them under pressure throughout. I’m backing the Seagulls to get back into the win column.
Pick: Brighton – Win
Brighton vs West Ham: Over 3.5 Cards + Both Teams to Receive a Card
Odds:
- American: -143
- Decimal: 1.70
- Fractional: 7/10
Brighton have averaged 2.50 cards per match this season, while West Ham have averaged 1.77. Simon Hooper will officiate the match, and in his eight fixtures this season he has issued an average of 5.75 cards. I expect both sides to be booked at least once, with West Ham likely forced into tactical fouls which could lead to bookings.
Pick: Over 3.5 Cards + Both Teams to Receive 1+ Cards
Wolves vs Manchester United: Manchester United – Win
Odds:
- American: -125
- Decimal: 1.80
- Fractional: 4/5
For a full comprehensive pre-match analysis article on why we’re backing Manchester United in this one, click here.
Disclaimer: The betting picks and analysis shared are for informational purposes only and are not guarantees of outcome or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and only risk money you are willing to lose.
