Matchweek 16 of the Premier League delivers major betting opportunities, headlined by Liverpool vs Brighton and the long-awaited Tyne–Wear derby as Sunderland host Newcastle United for the first time since 2016. With key storylines, high-pressure matchups, and several clubs balancing European commitments, we break down our best bets and predictions for this weekend’s Premier League action.
Contents:
- Saturday ACCA/Parlay
- Liverpool vs Brighton: Brighton +1.0
- Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham: Tottenham – Win (Draw No Bet)
- Sunderland vs Newcastle: Both Teams to Score + Both Teams to Receive 1+ Cards
- Sunderland vs Newcastle: Player to be Booked
- West Ham vs Aston Villa: Aston Villa – Win
Saturday ACCA
- Iliman Ndiaye (EVE) 1+ Fouls Drawn (vs. Chelsea)
- Joe Gomez (LIV) 1+ Fouls Committed (vs. Brighton)
- Liverpool vs Brighton: Over 2.5 Cards
Odds:
- American: +115
- Decimal: 2.15
- Fractional: 23/20
Iliman Ndiaye (EVE) 1+ Fouls Drawn (vs. Chelsea): So far this season, Ndiaye has been a standout performer in the Premier League. His ability on the ball and movement off it have made him a real problem for defenders. Ndiaye has drawn an average of 1.37 fouls per 90 minutes in league play, and viewers should expect a strong battle between him and Chelsea left-back Marc Cucurella. Cucurella is a very capable defender, but he has averaged 1.50 fouls committed per 90 minutes this season. I see Ndiaye drawing at least one foul in this matchup.
Joe Gomez (LIV) 1+ Fouls Committed (vs. Brighton): Due to Liverpool’s injuries at right-back, manager Arne Slot has had to get creative with his selections. With Conor Bradley and Jeremie Frimpong both unavailable (Bradley suspended), and with Dominik Szoboszlai such an important part of Liverpool’s attacking structure, I expect Joe Gomez to start at right-back. Gomez has not looked entirely comfortable in that role, and in his limited minutes this season he has averaged 2.00 fouls committed per 90 minutes. Brighton attack aggressively down the wings, and I can see Gomez being caught out of position multiple times. I’m backing him to commit at least one foul.
Liverpool vs Brighton: Over 2.5 Cards: I expect this to be a tightly contested match with plenty of intensity. Brighton have averaged 2.47 cards per match in the Premier League this season, while Liverpool have averaged 1.93. With the way both teams play and the accumulation of bookings they already have, I think this alternative 2.5-card line is a strong spot.
Pick: Iliman Ndiaye (EVE) 1+ Fouls Drawn; Joe Gomez (LIV) 1+ Fouls Committed; Liverpool vs Brighton Over 2.5 Cards
Data provided by fbref.
*Individual legs are voided if player does not start.
Liverpool vs Brighton: Brighton +1.0
Odds:
- American: -133
- Decimal: 1.75
- Fractional: 3/4
Liverpool are a team divided at the moment, with Arne Slot exiling Mo Salah following his comments and poor performances. The ongoing drama continues to create real issues behind the scenes. Salah has also said this may be his final match as a Liverpool player, whether he plays or not.
Liverpool are coming off a tough Champions League match against Inter Milan on Tuesday, which they won 1–0. In their most recent Premier League match, they surrendered a 2–0 lead to Leeds and ended up drawing 3–3 at Anfield. It has been a turbulent season despite a strong start, and their form does not seem to be stabilizing. While a win at the San Siro is impressive, the midweek fixture – combined with Brighton having a full week to prepare and the clear unrest in the dressing room – makes me think Brighton can come away with points.
I’m opting for the Brighton +1.0 Asian line as it provides solid protection in the event Brighton lose by one.
For our full article explaining and detailing Asian lines and how they work, click here.
Pick: Brighton +1.0
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham: Tottenham – Win (Draw No Bet)
Odds:
- American: +100
- Decimal: 2.00
- Fractional 1/1
Tottenham have had a questionable season overall, but they have been excellent on the road, winning four, drawing two, and losing just one. Spurs hosted Slavia Prague in the Champions League this week and won 3–0 while still managing squad rotation.
Forest also played in midweek, winning 2–1 away at FC Utrecht in the Europa League. They rotated as well, but the Thursday kickoff and travel will still have an effect. Forest have improved massively under Sean Dyche, though that hasn’t prevented recent defeats. In their last Premier League match, they lost 3–0 at home to Everton.
I’m backing Tottenham to win but opting for the Draw No Bet market due to Forest’s strong defensive structure, which could cause Spurs some problems.
Pick: Tottenham – Win (Draw No Bet)
Sunderland vs Newcastle: Both Teams to Score + Both Teams to Receive 1+ Cards
Odds:
- American: -110
- Decimal: 1.90
- Fractional: 9/10
For our full extensive article covering the pre-match analysis and betting tips, click here.
Pick: Both Teams to Score + Both Teams to Receive 1+ Cards
Sunderland vs Newcastle: Granit Xhaka (SUN) – To Be Booked
Odds:
- American: +160
- Decimal: 2.60
- Fractional: 8/5
For our full extensive article covering the pre-match analysis and betting tips, click here.
Pick: Granit Xhaka (SUN) – To Be Booked
*Pick is voided if player does not start
West Ham vs Aston Villa: Aston Villa – Win
Odds:
- American: +100
- Decimal: 2.00
- Fractional: 1/1
Aston Villa are not only the better team in this matchup but also the most in-form side in the Premier League right now. They sit third on 30 points, just three behind leaders Arsenal. Villa are on an eight-match winning streak in all competitions and have won nine of their last ten. West Ham, meanwhile, sit in the relegation zone in 18th place. They have improved recently, losing only one of their last six with three draws during that span, but issues remain.
Win-probability metrics give Aston Villa a 53% chance of taking all three points, and I’m backing them to do so. West Ham have looked better lately, but there are still cracks. Villa have been nearly flawless in recent weeks, and I don’t expect them to slow down here.
To view match win probability percentages for every match every week, find our Win Probability page here.
Pick: Aston Villa – Win
Disclaimer: The betting picks and analysis shared are for informational purposes only and are not guarantees of outcome or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and only risk money you are willing to lose.
