The Premier League returns this weekend with another full slate of fixtures, and we’ve broken down our favorite betting lines and value picks across the matchday. From Brighton hosting Leeds at the Amex to Tottenham’s showdown with Chelsea and Liverpool’s clash against Aston Villa, this week’s Premier League predictions and betting tips highlight the best bets to target, complete with odds, analysis, and reasoning for each selection.
Contents:
- Brighton vs Leeds: Brighton Team Total Over 1.5 Goals
- Bukayo Saka (ARS) + Yankuba Minteh (BHA) Fouls Drawn Double
- Tottenham vs Chelsea: Tottenham Win – Draw No Bet
- Liverpool vs Aston Villa: Aston Villa +1.0
- Saturday Parlay/ACCA
- West Ham vs Newcastle: Newcastle Win
Brighton vs Leeds: Brighton Team Total Over 1.5 Goals
Odds:
- American: -120
- Decimal: 1.83
- Fractional: 83/100
Brighton host Leeds this weekend after back-to-back defeats in all competitions. Last weekend, they fell 4–2 to Manchester United at Old Trafford, followed by a 2–0 midweek loss to Arsenal in the EFL Cup.
Leeds, meanwhile, are coming off a 2–1 home win against a relegation-threatened West Ham side.
On the road, Leeds have one win and three losses from four Premier League matches this season, conceding nine goals, five of which came against Arsenal. They’ve allowed 2+ goals in three of their last four league outings, with the only exception being their most recent win over West Ham.
Brighton haven’t looked at their best recently and are coming off two straight defeats. However, they remain a well-coached side with quality throughout the squad, and this matchup against a weaker opponent at home is a strong opportunity to bounce back.
I’m not taking Brighton to win outright, as Leeds have shown some attacking spark, but I like the Seagulls’ chances of scoring multiple goals.
Pick: Brighton Team Total over 1.5 Goals
Bukayo Saka (ARS) + Yankuba Minteh (BHA) Fouls Drawn Double
- Bukayo Saka (ARS) 2+ Fouls Drawn (vs Burnley)
- Yankuba Minteh (BHA) 1+ Fouls Drawn (vs Leeds)
Odds:
- American: +150
- Decimal: 2.50
- Fractional: 3/2
Bukayo Saka (ARS): Arsenal visit Turf Moor this weekend to face Burnley. Saka has drawn an average of 2.86 fouls per 90 minutes played. His ability to take on defenders 1v1 is a key part of his game, and with Arsenal expected to dominate possession and work to break down Burnley’s low block, Saka should comfortably draw 2+ fouls.
Yankuba Minteh (BHA): Minteh has been excellent on the ball this season, consistently attacking his opposite man. He’s capable of playing on either wing, and if he starts on Brighton’s right, he’ll likely face a backup left-back for Leeds following Gabriel Gudmundsson’s injury.
Pick: Bukayo Saka (ARS) 2+ fouls drawn + Yankuba Minteh (BHA) 1+ Fouls Drawn
*individual legs are voided if player does not start
Tottenham vs Chelsea: Tottenham Win – Draw No Bet
For a full extensive and detailed pre-match analysis, check out our article covering the match here.
Odds:
- American: +100
- Decimal: 2.00
- Fractional: 1/1
I like Tottenham in this matchup. The Draw No Bet market removes the risk of a draw, refunding the wager if the match ends level. Tottenham’s compact setup and man-marking approach should give them a tactical edge at home against Chelsea.
Pick: Tottenham Win – Draw No Bet
Saturday Parlay/ACCA
- Arsenal Win (vs Burnley)
- Matheus Cunha (MUN) 1+ Shot on Target (SoT) (vs Nottingham Forest)
- Tottenham vs Chelsea: Both Teams to Receive 1+ Cards
- Marc Cucurella (CHE) 1+ Fouls Drawn (vs Tottenham)
Odds:
- American: +165
- Decimal: 2.65
- Fractional: 33/20
Arsenal Win (vs Burnley): Arsenal travel to Turf Moor in outstanding form. They went the entire month of October without conceding a goal, winning every match in all competitions. In the Premier League, they faced just one shot on target during that stretch, that shot on target coming against Crystal Palace. Arsenal are firing on all cylinders and are unlikely to slip here.
Matheus Cunha (MUN) 1+ Shot on Target (SoT) (vs Nottingham Forest): Manchester United travel to face Nottingham Forest, averaging 5.00 shots on target per match in the league. Cunha averages 1.55 shots on target per 90 minutes this season. Forest have struggled all year under multiple managers, and while Sean Dyche continues to search for the right balance, United should create plenty of chances. Cunha is a shoot-first player, and I expect him to test the keeper at least once.
Tottenham Vs Chelsea: Both Teams to Receive 1+ Cards: Tottenham average 1.89 cards per match, Chelsea 2.44, and referee Jarred Gillett averages 3.50 per game this season. Given the intensity of this fixture and both sides’ aggressive styles, both should see at least one booking.
Marc Cucurella (CHE) 1+ Fouls Drawn (vs Tottenham): Marc Cucurella is a player who thrives on being in the gritty parts of the match. Cucurella on average has drawn 1.38 fouls per 90 minutes. The man I think will line up opposite him on matchday, Mohammed Kudus, has averaged 1.72 fouls per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season. Cucurella could draw a foul while he joins the attack as he does high up the pitch, or could draw an attacking foul when he wins possession back in his own half or final 1/3.
*individual legs are voided if player does not start
Liverpool vs Aston Villa: Aston Villa +1.0
For information on how Asian Line markets work, read our article breaking it down here.
Odds:
- American: -125
- Decimal: 1.80
- Fractional: 4/5
Liverpool are in dreadful form, losing six of their last seven matches in all competitions. Arne Slot hasn’t been able to get consistent performances from his key players, and the Reds have conceded 14 goals in that stretch, an average of two per match. While Liverpool still possess attacking quality, their defensive issues remain a major problem.
Aston Villa, meanwhile, have been in brilliant form after a slow start, winning six of their last seven matches in all competitions. They’ve recently beaten Manchester City 1–0 at home and Tottenham 2–1 away.
Given both sides’ recent form, the +1.0 Asian Line for Villa feels too generous. I’m siding with Villa to win, draw, or – if they lose – keep it within one goal.
Pick: Aston Villa +1.0
West Ham vs Newcastle: Newcastle Win
Odds:
- American: -154
- Decimal: 1.65
- Fractional: 13/20
It might not be too early to say West Ham are in a relegation fight. Through nine Premier League matchweeks, they sit 19th with one win, one draw, and seven losses. Their -13 goal differential and six-match winless run paint a bleak picture, and reports suggest Lucas Paquetá has requested a January transfer. The situation on and off the pitch looks dire.
Newcastle, on the other hand, are flying, winning three straight and five of their last six in all competitions. A key point to state is that Newcastle are dangerous on set pieces, an area where West Ham have been particularly poor defensively.
With the contrast in form and confidence, I expect Newcastle to take care of business against the struggling Irons.
Pick: Newcastle Win
Disclaimer: The betting picks and analysis shared are for informational purposes only and are not guarantees of outcome or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and only risk money you are willing to lose.
