Matchweek 7 of the Premier League is here, taking us right up to the international break. The action begins on Friday, October 3, as Fulham head south to face Bournemouth. The standout clash of the weekend comes on Sunday, with injury-hit Chelsea welcoming Liverpool to Stamford Bridge.
Contents:
- Bournemouth vs Fulham: Bournemouth – Team to Get Most Shots on Target (SoT)
- 3-Leg Player Fouls Parlay/Bet Builder
- Chelsea vs Liverpool: Liverpool Win
- Chelsea vs Liverpool: Moises Caicedo (CHE) 2+ Fouls Committed
- Brentford vs Manchester City: Manchester City Win
Bournemouth vs Fulham: Bournemouth – Team to Get Most Shots on Target (SoT)
Odds:
- American: -175
- Decimal: 1.57
- Fractional: 57/100
Bournemouth enter the match after a disappointing 2-2 draw against Leeds, while Fulham are coming off a 3-1 defeat to Aston Villa.
Creating clear scoring chances has been a major issue for Fulham this season. They sit joint-bottom of the Premier League with Sunderland in Shots on Target per match, averaging just 2.50. By contrast, Bournemouth average 4.00 shots on target per match.
Defensively, the two sides are fairly even in terms of shots on target conceded, with Fulham allowing 3.50 per match and Bournemouth 3.83.
Given Fulham’s ongoing struggles in front of goal, I like Bournemouth to register more shots on target in this fixture.
Pick: Bournemouth – Team to Get Most Shots on Target (SoT)
3-Leg Player Fouls Parlay/Bet Builder
- Granit Xhaka (SUN) – 1+ Fouls Committed (vs Manchester United)
- El Hadji Diouf (WHU) – 1+ Fouls Committed (vs Arsenal)
- Moises Caicedo (CHE) – 1+ Fouls Committed (vs Liverpool)
Odds:
- American: +100
- Decimal: 2.00
- Fractional: 1/1
All three of these players will be expected to start in their respective matches at the weekend.
Granit Xhaka (SUN): Sunderland travel to Old Trafford on Saturday to face Manchester United. Xhaka has averaged 1.50 fouls per 90 minutes this season and has committed at least one foul in 5/6 league matches. As Sunderland’s midfield anchor, he’ll be under pressure against Bruno Fernandes and United’s quick counter-attacking forwards.
El Hadji Diouf (WHU): Since joining West Ham from Slavia Prague in the summer, Diouf has locked down the left-back spot. This weekend, he faces the daunting task of marking Bukayo Saka. Diouf averages 1.17 fouls per 90 and has committed 1+ foul in 5/6 matches. Meanwhile, Saka has drawn 2.14 fouls per 90 minutes from opponents, making this matchup especially likely to see a whistle.
Moises Caicedo (CHE): Caicedo averages 1.00 fouls per 90 and has committed at least one foul in 4 of 6 matches this season. Facing Liverpool, he’ll need to shield Chelsea’s injury-hit back line from a dangerous attack. History is also telling: in his four appearances against Liverpool as a Chelsea player, Caicedo has committed 8 fouls in total, averaging 2.00 per game.
Pick: Xhaka (SUN), Diouf (WHU), Caicedo (CHE) 1+ Fouls Committed Each
*individual legs are voided if player does not start
Chelsea vs Liverpool: Liverpool Win
Odds:
- American: +125
- Decimal: 2.25
- Fractional: 5/4
This fixture promises to be one of the weekend’s highlights, with Chelsea battling through a mounting injury crisis and Liverpool looking to bounce back from consecutive defeats. Chelsea’s defensive line is severely depleted, forcing them to rely on second and third-choice options at centre-back. Meanwhile, the absence of key players such as Trevoh Chalobah, Levi Colwill, Cole Palmer, and Andrey Santos leaves significant gaps across the pitch.
Tactically, Chelsea will likely lean on their counter-attacking pace through Pedro Neto and Estevão, supported by João Pedro’s link-up play. However, they remain vulnerable both in build-up, where Robert Sánchez is prone to errors under pressure, and in defensive transitions, particularly on the flanks when Marc Cucurella and Reece James push high.
Liverpool, for their part, will look to dominate possession and use their attacking firepower to exploit Chelsea’s weakened defense. While they remain susceptible to counter-attacks, the overall squad depth and quality, even with injuries, should give them the upper hand.
All things considered, I see this match tilting in Liverpool’s favor. Chelsea’s injury list removes key elements of their structure, especially in defense and midfield, while Liverpool’s superior squad strength and attacking options are likely to prove decisive. Chelsea may find moments of success on the counter, but Liverpool’s balance of possession and quality across the pitch should be enough to secure the win.
Pick: Liverpool Win
Chelsea vs Liverpool: Moises Caicedo (CHE) 2+ Fouls Committed
Odds:
- American: -120
- Decimal: 1.83
- Fractional: 83/100
In attack, Moisés Caicedo typically operates as Chelsea’s single pivot. In this match, with Enzo Fernández likely holding a deeper role, he will still look to step higher up in attack, leaving Caicedo as the sole midfielder sitting deep when possession is lost. Should Liverpool break through the middle, Caicedo will be the one tasked with stopping the transition. If he is beaten, he may have to resort to tactical fouls to protect Chelsea’s young back line from dangerous counters.
When Liverpool have the ball, they will look to circulate possession quickly, pulling Chelsea players out of shape and exploiting the gaps. Given that Liverpool are likely to dominate possession, Caicedo could find himself forced into committing multiple fouls throughout the match.
As previously mentioned, Moises Caicedo has only averaged 1.00 fouls per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season and has committed 1+ fouls in 4/6 matches to start the campaign. However, Caicedo has committed 1+ fouls in 4/4 matches he has played against Liverpool in a Chelsea shirt, totalling 8 fouls committed in four matches, averaging 2.00 cards in those matches.
Pick: Moises Caicedo (CHE) 2+ Fouls Committed
*pick is voided if player does not start
Brentford vs Manchester City: Manchester City Win
Odds:
- American: -154
- Decimal: 1.65
- Fractional: 13/20
Erling Haaland continues to show why he’s considered the best striker in the world, and Brentford’s center-backs will have their hands full trying to contain him.
Brentford have been impressive against the “Big Six” this season, holding Chelsea to a 2-2 draw and beating Manchester United 3-1 last weekend. But Manchester City present a far tougher challenge than their Manchester rivals.
City return to league play after a 2-2 draw with Monaco in the Champions League and are currently riding a six-match unbeaten run in all competitions. Pep Guardiola’s side look to be clicking into form, and I expect them to extend that streak here.
Pick: Manchester City Win
Disclaimer: The betting picks and analysis shared are for informational purposes only and are not guarantees of outcome or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and only risk money you are willing to lose.
