Matchday 31 of the Premier League is here this weekend with a sizable league break of three weeks following. This weekend also sees Arsenal face Manchester City in the EFL Cup Final at Wembley. In the Premier League, however, attention will largely turn to the Tyne–Wear Derby, as Sunderland travel to face Newcastle United on Sunday. This week, we take a deep dive into the Tyne-Wear Derby, providing a full pre-match breakdown including team news, injuries, predicted starting lineups, a Newcastle vs Sunderland prediction, key stats, and betting insights.
For the history, head-to-head records, and the craziest of moments in the Tyne-Wear derby – click here!
Newcastle United vs Sunderland Match Details
- Competition: Premier League
- Matchday: 31
- Date: March 22, 2026
- Venue: St. James’ Park (Newcastle)
- Kickoff Time: 12:00 PM (local time, GMT)
Newcastle Team News
Newcastle come into this match off the back of a difficult midweek in the UEFA Champions League. After earning a 1–1 draw against Barcelona at St. James’ Park in the first leg, the Magpies were heavily beaten 7–2 at the Camp Nou on Wednesday.
Their recent schedule has been relentless, with Newcastle playing 13 matches across February and March alone. That run includes multiple clashes against Manchester City, Barcelona, Chelsea, Manchester United, and Aston Villa.
Sandro Tonali’s availability for Sunday remains uncertain after the Italian midfielder was forced off with an apparent groin injury during the defeat in Spain.
With the international break looming, Newcastle face one final fixture: the Tyne–Wear Derby.
Sunderland Team News
Sunderland enter the derby following a 1–0 home defeat to Brighton in the Premier League last weekend.
Their injury concerns have continued to grow, with Dan Ballard the latest addition after picking up a knock against Brighton. Despite this, Ballard was still called up to the Northern Ireland squad for the upcoming international break, suggesting the issue may not be too serious.
There is some positive news for the Black Cats, however, with potential returns for Reinildo, Robin Roefs, Enzo Le Fée, and Nordi Mukiele, according to Régis Le Bris.
Newcastle Injuries
Unavailable: Emil Krafth, Bruno Guimarães, Fabian Schär, Lewis Miley
Questionable: Sandro Tonali
Sunderland Injuries
Unavailable: Jocelin Ta Bi, Romaine Mundle, Bertrand Traoré, Nilson Angulo
Questionable: Reinildo, Robin Roefs, Enzo Le Fée, Dan Ballard, Wilson Isidor, Nordi Mukiele
Predicted Starting Lineups
Newcastle Lineup Notes
Eddie Howe’s side are currently short on options in central midfield. With Lewis Miley, Sandro Tonali, and Bruno Guimarães all likely unavailable, Newcastle may enter the derby lacking both depth and experience in the middle of the park.
Anthony Elanga impressed in midweek, scoring twice against Barcelona, and could be rewarded with another start on the wing.
Leading the line presents multiple possibilities, with options including William Osula, Yoane Wissa, Nick Woltemade, and Anthony Gordon. Gordon is more likely to start in his natural wide role, which could see Osula given the nod centrally.
Sunderland Lineup Notes
As mentioned, Sunderland are dealing with several injury concerns, leaving multiple selection decisions dependent on late fitness tests.
Reinildo and Enzo Le Fée are both expected to be available and have been included in the predicted lineup.
In defence, Luke O’Nien appears the most likely replacement for Dan Ballard should the latter be deemed unfit.
There is also uncertainty in goal, with Robin Roefs still a doubt to be fully match fit.
Newcastle vs Sunderland Preview
Sunderland claimed a 1–0 victory in the reverse fixture at the Stadium of Light. The Tyne–Wear Derby remains one of, if not the most, passionate rivalries in English football.
This encounter is expected to be similarly intense, with both sides bringing a high level of emotion and physicality, likely resulting in a heated affair, much like their first meeting earlier this season.
How Newcastle Will Likely Line Up
Newcastle typically set up in a 4-3-3 system, though their shape shifts depending on whether they are in or out of possession. Their style is built around a high press and a fast tempo in attack.
Newcastle Out of Possession
Out of possession, Newcastle drop into a 4-5-1 shape, with their wingers falling back into wide midfield positions. When defending in their own half, they look to remain compact and disciplined.
The midfield three stays narrow, with the No. 6 ready to drop into pockets of space between the lines when required. This role is usually occupied by Sandro Tonali, but with the Italian likely unavailable, Jacob Ramsey is expected to fill in as the deeper-lying midfielder.
Newcastle can be difficult to break down due to their ability to congest central areas. However, a recurring issue has been the space that can open up between their defensive lines, which opponents may look to exploit.
Newcastle’s Press
Newcastle frequently press high up the pitch. From their 4-5-1 defensive shape, one winger, often Anthony Gordon, will push forward to join William Osula in the first line of the press.
When the winger steps up, the fullback on that same side will often advance as well. This leaves the fullback responsible for the entire wide channel, rather than just tracking the opposition’s advanced winger, which can create both opportunities and vulnerabilities in wide areas.
Space can be found down the outer channel of the same side that Newcastle’s winger presses from.
Newcastle in Attack
In attack, Newcastle operate in a 3-3-4 shape, with their midfielders ready to push forward and join the front line when opportunities arise.
The No. 6 plays a key role in build-up, operating as a deep-lying playmaker with the freedom to move across different channels of the pitch to progress possession.
On the left side, Lewis Hall frequently advances forward to support the attack. At times, he will push into midfield instead, allowing Joelinton to move higher into the attacking line. This rotation helps maintain Anthony Gordon’s width, keeping him in a wider position and stretching the opposition defence.
How Sunderland Will Likely Set Up
On paper, Sunderland are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, though their structure can shift fluidly depending on the phase of play.
Sunderland Out of Possession
Out of possession, Sunderland can adopt one of two defensive shapes. At times, they maintain a traditional 4-2-3-1, with their midfielders and wingers positioned narrowly to protect central areas.
More commonly, however, Sunderland drop their wingers slightly deeper while pushing their attacking midfielder higher alongside the striker. This creates a 4-2-2-2 variation that closely resembles a traditional 4-4-2 defensive setup. In this structure, the No. 10, Diarra, steps forward to join the centre forward, Brian Brobbey, forming a front two.
Sunderland aim to remain compact defensively, focusing on congesting central areas and making themselves difficult to break down.
Sunderland’s Press
Sunderland are also capable of pressing high up the pitch. When pressing aggressively, the wingers push forward, while players such as Brobbey and Diarra apply pressure to the opposition’s back line.
Sadiki’s role within the press can vary depending on the situation. He may step forward to join the pressing line and compress the opposition’s shape, or he may be tasked with tightly marking the opposition’s deepest midfielder. In these scenarios, Granit Xhaka will often rotate centrally to provide additional defensive stability.
Sunderland in Attack
During build-up play, Sunderland often push their central defenders wider, allowing the fullbacks to advance further up the pitch while the wingers push even higher to stretch the opposition.
From the double pivot, one midfielder – typically Granit Xhaka – may hold position in front of the defence, while the centre-backs narrow slightly to aid ball circulation. Alternatively, Xhaka can drop into the defensive line, positioning himself to either side of a centre-back to help progress play from deeper areas.
(Example from Premier Pulse’s Sunderland vs Brighton Pre-Match Analysis)
As Sunderland move into more advanced areas, they transition into a more aggressive attacking shape. The No. 6 often operates as a deep-lying playmaker, responsible for distributing the ball forward and dictating tempo.
(Example from Premier Pulse’s Sunderland vs Brighton Pre-Match Analysis)
Sadiki can step higher from midfield to support the attack, while the fullback on the attacking side pushes wide to provide width. On the opposite flank, the fullback may invert into midfield to assist with ball circulation or drop deeper to form a temporary back three alongside the centre-backs.
Where Newcastle Can Find Success
Don’t Allow Space Between Defensive Lines
Sunderland possess several players who are capable of roaming and dropping into pockets of space between the opposition’s lines, most notably Brian Brobbey, Sadiki, and Diarra. Newcastle must remain compact centrally, ensuring they do not become stretched vertically while maintaining discipline when tracking runners.
When man-marking in midfield, it is crucial that Newcastle’s players stay tight to their assignments and do not lose their markers. At times, Newcastle’s central midfielders can be pulled wide to cover when a winger presses high, which can leave gaps centrally. Limiting the space between the lines will be key to maintaining defensive stability.
If Newcastle can successfully close off central channels, they may be able to disrupt Sunderland’s attacks early and retain a greater share of possession.
Press Aggressively
Sunderland do look to build from the back, but they can appear uncomfortable under sustained, aggressive pressure. When pressed high, they have shown a tendency to clear their lines hastily or concede possession in dangerous areas.
Newcastle already employ a high-intensity press, and this match should be no different. However, Eddie Howe’s side must ensure they remain structurally sound behind the press to avoid being exposed.
Targeting specific players could be key. Luke O’Nien and Ellborg, if included in the starting XI, may be areas Newcastle look to exploit. Ellborg, in particular, can be uneasy with the ball at his feet and may resort to going long under pressure, often leading to turnovers in the middle third.
Use Long Switches and Switch the Play Quickly
Sunderland’s defensive shape can become narrow, particularly with their wingers tucking inside. This can leave space available in the wide areas, especially when their defensive structure shifts heavily toward the ball side.
Newcastle frequently utilise long diagonal switches during both build-up and progression phases. If they are able to draw Sunderland toward one side of the pitch, opportunities may open up to exploit the far side with quick switches to wingers or advancing fullbacks.
Maintaining width will be important. By stretching Sunderland’s shape and then switching play quickly, Newcastle may find themselves in advantageous wide overloads.
Even when a direct diagonal pass is not available, Newcastle should still look to circulate possession quickly across the back line to shift the point of attack. Quick, fluid switches will be essential to prevent Sunderland from resetting their defensive structure.
Where Sunderland Can Find Success
Win the Midfield Battle
Newcastle are expected to be without Bruno Guimarães, Lewis Miley, and likely Sandro Tonali, leaving them short on options in central midfield. As a result, they may be forced to field a midfield trio that lacks familiarity playing together.
Sunderland’s midfield pairing of Sadiki and Granit Xhaka has performed strongly at times this season, and they will likely back themselves to control the centre of the pitch against a depleted Newcastle midfield.
Rotations will be important, with players such as Diarra and Sadiki looking to drift into pockets of space and pull Newcastle’s midfielders out of position. If Sunderland can disrupt Newcastle’s shape centrally and assert control in midfield, it could lead to opportunities in dangerous areas.
Overload Numbers in the Outside Lanes
Sunderland should look to create overloads in wide areas during both build-up and attacking phases, particularly when Newcastle commit a winger high in the press.
When Newcastle’s winger steps forward, space can open up in the wide channel behind them. In these moments, Sunderland can rotate a midfielder into that space, creating a numerical advantage and forcing Newcastle’s midfielders or fullbacks to shift wide. This movement can pull Newcastle out of shape and open up central passing lanes.
Counter Attack Direct
When Newcastle’s fullbacks push forward – particularly Lewis Hall – Sunderland should look to counter quickly into the space left behind. If Hall is caught high up the pitch, it can leave Dan Burn isolated on the left side.
While Burn is a strong defender, he lacks pace, which Sunderland may look to exploit in transition.
With Sandro Tonali likely unavailable, Jacob Ramsey may be required to operate in a deeper role that is less familiar to him. This could create additional vulnerability in transition, particularly through central areas.
Newcastle also commit numbers forward during set pieces, often leaving space behind for second-phase transitions. Sunderland could benefit from quick, direct counter-attacks in these situations, especially if Newcastle’s defenders remain advanced.
Newcastle vs Sunderland Prediction
Win probability metrics give Newcastle United a 63% chance of victory, compared to Sunderland’s 17%. To view full win probability data for all Premier League matches and the EFL Cup Final – click here.
This is a difficult match to call, given Sunderland’s absences across the pitch and Newcastle’s midfield concerns, compounded by the fatigue from their recent fixture congestion.
A prediction must be made, however, and Newcastle are backed to edge a closely contested Tyne–Wear Derby.
Prediction: 2-0 Newcastle.
Betting Tips
Pick 1: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds:
- American: -110
- Decimal: 1.90
- Fractional: 9/10
Both sides can struggle at times to create consistent attacking opportunities. Defensively, each team is capable of maintaining strong structure, particularly when Granit Xhaka is present for Sunderland.
Even without Tonali, Newcastle should remain solid defensively. With a potentially unfamiliar midfield setup, they may take fewer risks in possession, which could result in a more cautious, defensively oriented match.
I am backing the under on total goals.
Pick: Under 2.5 Goals
Pick 2: Over 5.0 Cards
Odds:
- American: -139
- Decimal: 1.72
- Fractional: 18/25
The reverse fixture earlier this season had a total of nine cards shown in the match. With the amount of intensity surrounding this derby, I do expect the asian line card total of 5.0 to go over.
Pick: Over 5.0 Cards
Disclaimer: The betting picks and analysis shared are for informational purposes only and are not guarantees of outcome or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and only risk money you are willing to lose.
