Matchday 22 of the Premier League kicks off on Saturday with the Manchester Derby. More action follows throughout the weekend, with Chelsea hosting Brentford and Arsenal looking to potentially extend their lead at the top of the table against Nottingham Forest. Below, we break down our best bets and same game parlays/bet builders for Matchday 22, focusing on value, trends, and key match dynamics across the Premier League.
Contents:
- Saturday Player Prop ACCA / Parlay
- Manchester United vs Manchester City: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals
- Manchester United vs Manchester City: Player Props Double
- Chelsea vs Brentford: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals
- Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: Arsenal Win + Arsenal – Most Shots on Target
Saturday Player Prop ACCA / Parlay Double
- Harry Wilson (FUL) 1+ Shots on Target (vs. Leeds United)
- Cole Palmer (CHE) 1+ Fouls Drawn (vs. Brentford)
Odds:
- American: +130
- Decimal: 2.30
- Fractional: 13/10
Harry Wilson (FUL) 1+ Shots on Target:
Harry Wilson has been one of the Premier League’s standout performers this season and a constant menace in Fulham’s attack. He has been in red-hot form, averaging 0.96 shots on target per 90 minutes played, and has recorded at least one shot on target in 4 of his last 4 Premier League matches.
Leeds have allowed 30.5 expected goals (xG) in the Premier League this season, the fifth-highest total in the league, indicating that they concede high-quality chances. They also allow an average of 3.90 shots on target per match.
Wilson leads Fulham in shots on target in the Premier League this season with 16 – double the total of Raúl Jiménez, who sits second with 8.
I am backing Harry Wilson to record a shot on target in this match.
Cole Palmer (CHE) 1+ Fouls Drawn:
Cole Palmer has recently been sidelined through injury, but this fixture is his expected return. If Palmer does not start, this leg would be voided; however, the hope is that he will be fit and ready to go on Saturday.
Palmer has averaged 1.76 fouls drawn per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season. His ability to carry the ball diagonally and drive past opponents often draws fouls from defenders.
Should Palmer start, I expect him to draw at least one foul in this match.
Pick: Harry Wilson (FUL) 1+ Shots on Target + Cole Palmer (CHE) 1+ Fouls Drawn
*Individual legs are voided if player does not start
Manchester United vs Manchester City: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals
Odds:
- American: -133
- Decimal: 1.75
- Fractional: 3/4
For our full, extensive pre-match analysis outlining why this pick was made, click here!
Pick: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals
Manchester United vs Manchester City: Player Props Double
- Erling Haaland (MCI) 1+ Shots on Target
- Tijjani Reijnders (MCI) 1+ Shots on Target
Odds:
- American: -120
- Decimal: 1.83
- Fractional: 83/100
Erling Haaland needs little introduction:
- Averages 1.88 shots on target per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season
- Recorded 1+ shots on target in four of his last five league matches
Tijjani Reijnders has adapted seamlessly to Manchester City’s system and has been a consistent attacking presence. He has scored six goals and added six assists across 33 appearances in all competitions this season.
- Averages 0.88 shots on target per Premier League match
- Recorded 1+ shots on target in four of his last five league appearances
Pick: Erling Haaland (MCI) 1+ Shots on Target + Tijjani Reijnders (MCI) 1+ Shots on Target
*Pick is voided if either player does not start
Chelsea vs Brentford: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals
Odds:
- American: -105
- Decimal: 1.95
- Fractional: 19/20
Liam Rosenior has now officially taken over at Chelsea and has two matches under his belt with the Blues – a 5–1 FA Cup win over Charlton Athletic and a 3–2 first-leg defeat to Arsenal in the EFL Cup semi-finals.
Chelsea have looked susceptible to counter-attacks in both matches under Rosenior. While Charlton lacked the quality to truly punish Chelsea, their movement still caused disruption at times. Against Arsenal, Chelsea struggled with misplayed passes, particularly during the build-up phase, which is likely an issue as the squad continues to adapt to a new system.
Brentford arrive in good form, unbeaten in their last six matches across all competitions, with five wins in that span. They are a genuine threat on the counter-attack, something that could cause Chelsea problems throughout the match.
When these two sides met earlier this season, the game finished in a 2–2 draw, providing plenty of goals and entertainment. I will be hoping for a similar outcome here.
Pick: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: Arsenal Win + Arsenal – Most Shots on Target
Odds:
- American: -110
- Decimal: 1.90
- Fractional: 9/10
Arsenal have continued their sensational form and currently sit top of the Premier League. This fixture presents a strong opportunity for the Gunners to pick up another three points in their pursuit of the league title. Arsenal were comfortable 3–0 winners the last time these two sides met.
Arsenal’s schedule has been busy, with Mikel Arteta’s side coming off a 3–2 win over Chelsea in the EFL Cup semi-finals in midweek and with a UEFA Champions League match to follow on Tuesday. As a result, some rotation is expected. Even with changes, I still believe Arsenal will dominate possession, register more shots on target, and ultimately win the match.
Win probability metrics give Arsenal a 66% chance of victory.
Across their last five matches in all competitions, Arsenal have averaged 5.20 shots on target per match while allowing just 3.20 against.
Nottingham Forest will look to defend as a unit and remain compact, aiming to create chances on the counter-attack. However, Arsenal are extremely comfortable in possession and consistently find ways to create chances. Even when teams defend well for long spells – as seen with Crystal Palace and Wolves – mental and physical fatigue often comes into play against sustained Arsenal pressure.
I am backing the Gunners to both win this match and record more shots on target.
To view win probability percentages for every Premier League match, click here!
Pick: Arsenal Win + Arsenal – Most Shots on Target
All data provided via fbref.
Disclaimer: The betting picks and analysis shared are for informational purposes only and are not guarantees of outcome or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and only risk money you are willing to lose.
