Chelsea host Liverpool in what is the marquee matchup of the weekend in the Premier League. Both sides enter the contest dealing with several injury concerns. Chelsea are coming off a 3-1 home defeat to Brighton last weekend, while Liverpool arrive on the back of two consecutive losses in all competitions – a 2-1 defeat to Crystal Palace in the league, followed by a 1-0 loss to Galatasaray in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday.
Odds:
| Chelsea | Draw | Liverpool | |
| American | +187 | +280 | +125 |
| Decimal | 2.87 | 3.80 | 2.25 |
| Fractional | 187/100 | 14/5 | 5/4 |
Previous Five Head-to-Head Matches (All Competitions):
The home side won each tie respectively last season with both matches providing good entertainment and goals.
Chelsea Team News
Chelsea will take another hit in their defensive line with the absence of Trevoh Chalobah, who picked up a red card in their last outing. He joins fellow centre-backs Levi Colwill, Tosin Adarabioyo, and Wesley Fofana on the sidelines, with the latter three still out through injury. Tosin and Fofana are expected to return after the upcoming international break. This leaves Enzo Maresca with the options of Benoît Badiashile, Jorrel Hato, and Josh Acheampong to fill the centre-back positions.
Cole Palmer will also remain unavailable until after the international break due to injury. Central midfielder Andrey Santos is sidelined until then as well.
Finally, Liam Delap and Dário Essugo round out Chelsea’s injured list heading into this clash.
Liverpool Team News
Goalkeeper Alisson Becker will miss the match after sustaining an injury against Galatasaray, meaning Giorgi Mamardashvili will start between the sticks. Also likely to miss Saturday’s match is Federico Chiesa, who has enjoyed a resurgence at Liverpool this season.
Liverpool’s main man in attack so far has been Hugo Ekitike. He was taken off midweek against Galatasaray with a minor knock, but he is expected to be available for Saturday’s clash.
Predicted Starting Lineups
Chelsea Lineup Notes
With a heavily depleted back line and only three realistic centre-back options, Acheampong and Badiashile look the most likely to start, with Hato also in contention. With Andrey Santos sidelined, Enzo Fernández will likely drop back into his deeper-lying midfield role, while youngster Facundo Buonanotte could step into the No. 10 role.
Estevão has spoken openly about his desire to play centrally, but I expect him to start on the wing for this match.
Liverpool Lineup Notes
With Alisson out, Mamardashvili will step in as Liverpool’s goalkeeper on Saturday. Leading the line could come down to either Alexander Isak or Ekitike, but given Ekitike’s minor injury on Tuesday, Isak is the more likely starter.
Liverpool have rotated heavily at right-back this season between Conor Bradley, Jeremie Frimpong, and even Dominik Szoboszlai when needed. However, with Frimpong starting and logging significant minutes midweek against Galatasaray, Bradley is the likely option to operate at right-back here, leaving Szoboszlai in midfield.
Match Preview
This will be a difficult test defensively for Chelsea given their injuries at the back. Liverpool bring plenty of firepower, and it will fall on Chelsea’s second- and even third-choice defenders to hold firm – a task that is easier said than done.
Liverpool, meanwhile, come into this contest on the back of consecutive defeats, and this will be their third straight match away from home in all competitions.
One area of concern for the Reds has been their vulnerability to opposition counter-attacks, an issue that has been evident throughout the season. Almost every time Liverpool are discussed, their susceptibility to quick transitions has to be mentioned. The root cause lies in their shape when in possession, as their attacking formation in the opponent’s half often leaves space exposed at the back.
The image illustrates Liverpool’s preferred 2-3-5 attacking shape, with full-backs Milos Kerkez and Conor Bradley inverting into midfield. This allows Dominik Szoboszlai to push higher up the pitch and join the attacking line.
In possession, Liverpool are typically left with just two defenders holding the fort in case they lose the ball. This setup leaves them particularly vulnerable to quick, direct counter-attacks through the middle. While Bradley and Kerkez are usually well-positioned to recover into their wide defensive roles, the central areas often remain exposed when possession is lost. [See image below.] A side note here is that Ibrahima Konaté has struggled defensively so far this season and has often been a weak point in Liverpool’s lineup. He will need to remain sharp in transition, especially if Chelsea look to exploit counter-attacking opportunities.
Kerkez and Bradley often join Liverpool’s attack, making forward runs from deeper positions as they look to slip into the box unmarked or create overloads to gain numerical superiority on the flanks. However, when either Milos Kerkez or Conor Bradley push further up the pitch, they leave their respective wing exposed to counter-attacks. Chelsea have plenty of pace out wide with Pedro Neto and Estevão capable of exploiting any turnovers or misplaced passes from Liverpool.
Although João Pedro is not particularly quick in Chelsea’s central attacking role, he provides strong link-up play for the Blues and could act as a key outlet on the break, feeding the ball wide or in behind to his lightning-fast wingers. Chelsea’s counter-attacking threat could create real problems for Liverpool when they are caught out of shape. One scenario to watch is when Robert Sánchez collects a loose cross or routine save; the Chelsea goalkeeper often looks to distribute the ball quickly to launch counters. If this happens, Liverpool will need to transition rapidly into their defensive shape.
Defensively, Chelsea face some of the same issues as Liverpool when it comes to counter-attacks. Left-back Marc Cucurella frequently pushes high, joining midfield and even stepping into the half-space during attacking phases. This often leaves Chelsea’s left side exposed which is an especially dangerous prospect with Mohamed Salah charging down that wing.
When Chelsea are in possession, Reece James is tasked with inverting into midfield to assist Moisés Caicedo in progressing play. In build-up phases, James alternates between stepping centrally to support midfield or hugging the touchline to provide an outlet. While his movement is important to Chelsea’s attack, it can also leave them vulnerable when they lose possession.
Chelsea’s build-up play relies heavily on Caicedo, who drops deep to receive the ball before looking to break opposition lines with his passing range. His ability to play line-breaking passes is key to Chelsea’s escape against pressing sides. To limit this, Liverpool will need to assign a man to closely mark Caicedo during Chelsea’s build-up.
Another concern for the Blues is goalkeeper Robert Sánchez, who continues to struggle when playing out from the back. Liverpool’s aggressive high press will target him whenever the ball is at his feet. Sánchez will need to make quick decisions to clear danger, as one mistake under pressure could gift Liverpool a scoring chance.
All in all, I see this match leaning Liverpool’s way, especially with Chelsea’s injury problems. The Blues are missing key figures in Trevoh Chalobah, Levi Colwill, and Cole Palmer, while the absence of Andrey Santos also forces Enzo Fernández into a deeper role, limiting Chelsea’s attacking options. Chelsea could still find joy on the counter if they break quickly, but Liverpool’s squad strength may prove too much for them on the day.
Betting Tips
Pick 1: Liverpool win
Odds:
- American: +125
- Decimal: 2.25
- Fractional: 5/4
I think that this match is a good opportunity for Liverpool to bounce back to winning ways with this Chelsea side being so depleted from injuries. Although Chelsea pose issues on the counter, I do still think that Liverpool will have what it takes to beat Chelsea away from home.
Pick: Liverpool win
Pick 2: Moises Caicedo (CHE) 2+ Fouls Committed
Odds:
- American: -120
- Decimal: 1.83
- Fractional: 83/100
In attack, Moisés Caicedo typically operates as Chelsea’s single pivot. In this match, with Enzo Fernández likely holding a deeper role, he will still look to step higher up in attack, leaving Caicedo as the sole midfielder sitting deep when possession is lost. Should Liverpool break through the middle, Caicedo will be the one tasked with stopping the transition. If he is beaten, he may have to resort to tactical fouls to protect Chelsea’s young back line from dangerous counters.
When Liverpool have the ball, they will look to circulate possession quickly, pulling Chelsea players out of shape and exploiting the gaps. Given that Liverpool are likely to dominate possession, Caicedo could find himself forced into committing multiple fouls throughout the match.
Pick: Moises Caicedo (CHE) 2+ Fouls Committed
*pick is voided if player does not start
Disclaimer: The betting picks and analysis shared are for informational purposes only and are not guarantees of outcome or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and only risk money you are willing to lose.
