Matchweek 6 in the Premier League kicks off in London on Saturday when the Red Devils of Manchester pay a visit to Brentford. The weekend is headlined by the marquee matchup up north when Arsenal take on Newcastle United in what should be a very entertaining match.
Contents:
- Brentford vs Manchester United: Manchester United – Team to Get Most Shots on Target
- Crystal Palace vs Liverpool: Liverpool Team Total Over 5.5 Corners
- Leeds United vs Bournemouth: Jayden Bogle (LEE) 2+ Fouls Committed
- Manchester City vs Burnley: Burnley Team Total Under 0.5 Goals
- Aston Villa vs Fulham: Under 8.5 Shots on Target (SoT)
- Newcastle United vs Arsenal: Over 4.5 Cards
- Newcastle vs Arsenal: Bruno Guimarães (NEW) 2+ Fouls Committed
Brentford vs Manchester United: Manchester United – Team to Get Most Shots on Target (SoT)
Odds:
- American: -189
- Decimal: 1.53
- Fractional: 53/100
Ruben Amorim and Manchester United have a strong chance to collect more points when they travel to London on Saturday to face Brentford. I expect United to dominate possession and create quality chances. Brentford have averaged just 39.6% possession in the Premier League this season, the second-lowest in the league. United, by contrast, have held 53.2% possession across their matches. But the real edge here comes from shots on target.
United have averaged 4.2 shots on target per match, tied for the second-highest in the league alongside Chelsea and West Ham. Brentford, meanwhile, have managed only 2.8 shots on target per game and allowed opponents an average of 3.6. In what feels like another must-win for Amorim’s side, I see United applying consistent pressure and testing the goalkeeper whenever opportunities arise. With Cunha and Mount expected to both be available, the likelihood of United registering the most shots on target only increases.
Pick: Manchester United – Team to Get Most Shots on Target (SoT)
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool: Liverpool Team Total Over 5.5 Corners
Odds:
- American: -125
- Decimal: 1.80
- Fractional: 4/5
Liverpool are expected to dominate possession and spend much of the match camped in Crystal Palace’s half. With Palace defenders likely blocking plenty of shots, play should frequently break down into corners for the Reds.
So far this Premier League season, Liverpool average 5.6 corners per match, but that figure climbs to 6.25 corners in games where they hold at least 55% possession. Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have allowed their opponents an average of 7.0 corners per match this season.
Head-to-head history also supports this play: in their two league meetings last season, Liverpool earned 8 and 11 corners against Palace.
Pick: Liverpool Team Total Over 5.5 Corners
Leeds United vs Bournemouth: Jayden Bogle (LEE) 2+ Fouls Committed
Odds:
- American: +125
- Decimal: 2.25
- Fractional: 5/4
Jayden Bogle went off injured late in Leeds’ last match, but reports this week suggest the defender should be fully fit and ready for Saturday’s clash with Bournemouth. Bogle faces a tough task on the right flank against Antoine Semenyo or David Brooks on the Cherries’ left wing.
This season, Bogle is averaging 1.86 fouls per 90 minutes, and I can see him being caught out multiple times by Semenyo’s direct runs should Semenyo return to Bournemouth’s left side. David Brooks has been operating on the Cherries left side as of late, however, and he has drawn an average of 1.05 fouls per 90 minutes. Bournemouth also break at pace on the counter, and in transition Bogle may be forced into tactical fouls to slow them down.
If he starts, I like him to commit at least two fouls in this match.
Pick: Jayden Bogle (LEE) 2+ Fouls Committed
*pick is voided if player does not start
Manchester City vs Burnley: Burnley Team Total Under 0.5 Goals
Odds:
- American: -125
- Decimal: 1.80
- Fractional: 4/5
Burnley have managed just five goals in their opening five Premier League matches. Against Manchester City, who will dominate possession at the Etihad, that tally is unlikely to improve. Pep Guardiola has emphasized defensive stability in recent matches rather than an aggressive press, and with Gianluigi Donnarumma in goal, I expect City to keep a clean sheet against Burnley on Saturday.
Pick: Burnley Team Total Under 0.5 Goals
Aston Villa vs Fulham: Under 8.5 Shots on Target (SoT)
Odds:
- American: -110
- Decimal: 1.90
- Fractional: 9/10
Aston Villa’s Premier League campaign has started poorly – one goal scored and just three points collected from five matches. They’ve struggled to create chances, averaging only 2.4 shots on target per game (tied for the second-lowest in the league alongside Fulham).
Despite their attacking struggles, Villa have stayed solid at the back, conceding only five goals and holding opponents to 2.8 shots on target per match. Fulham, meanwhile, are also averaging just 2.4 shots on target.
This looks set to be a tactical battle, with both sides compact defensively and unwilling to over-commit on the press. I’m taking under 8.5 total shots on target in this one.
Pick: Under 8.5 Shots on Target (SoT)
Newcastle United vs Arsenal: Over 4.5 Cards
Odds:
- American: -110
- Decimal: 1.90
- Fractional: 9/10
Arsenal travel north to face Newcastle on Sunday in the Premier League’s marquee matchup of the week — one that promises to be scrappy. These two sides met four times across all competitions last season, with Newcastle eliminating the Gunners from the EFL Cup semi-finals by a 4-0 aggregate score.
In those four meetings, the over 4.5 cards line was hit in three. Arsenal picked up 11 cards (2.75 per match), while Newcastle collected 12 (3.0 per match). These fixtures have a history of fireworks and rising tempers, and I don’t expect this one to be any different. Even though both teams have been relatively disciplined this season, this clash is set up to get physical and heated quickly.
Pick: Over 4.5 Cards
Newcastle United vs Arsenal: Bruno Guimarães (NEW) 2+ Fouls Committed
Odds:
- American: -125
- Decimal: 1.80
- Fractional: 4/5
Last season, Newcastle averaged 12.75 fouls per game across their four meetings with Arsenal. Bruno Guimarães featured in three of those matches, committing an average of 2.0 fouls. This season, he’s averaging 2.75 fouls per 90 minutes in the Premier League.
Given how open and end-to-end this match could become, I expect Guimarães to be forced into tactical fouls in midfield to disrupt Arsenal’s transitions and fast breaks.
Pick: Bruno Guimarães (NEW) 2+ Fouls Committed
*pick is voided if player does not start
Disclaimer: The betting picks and analysis shared are for informational purposes only and are not guarantees of outcome or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and only risk money you are willing to lose.
