Odds:
| Manchester City | Draw | Manchester United | |
| American | -133 | +300 | +320 |
| Decimal | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| Fractional | 3/4 | 3/1 | 16/5 |
On the return from international break, the Manchester derby is upon us with Manchester United walking into the Etihad on Sunday to face Manchester City.
Previous Five Head-to-Head Matches (All Competitions):
Pep Guardiola has had limited success against City’s Manchester rivals in their last five meetings, recording just one league win on March 3, 2024, along with a Community Shield victory on penalties last season.
Manchester City Team News
Manchester City could line up with a new face in goal this weekend. Champions League winner Gianluigi Donnarumma has joined from PSG for £25 million, raising questions about where this leaves recent arrival James Trafford. What is clear, however, is that Donnarumma is expected to become City’s first-choice goalkeeper going forward.
Omar Marmoush will be unavailable after suffering a knee ligament injury during Egypt’s World Cup qualifier against Burkina Faso on Tuesday. The 26-year-old, who had started City’s last two matches, was forced off in the ninth minute following a heavy collision early in the game.
City will also be without summer signing Rayan Cherki, who is sidelined for two months with a thigh injury sustained in the defeat to Brighton. Adding to the attacking concerns, Phil Foden was absent from the squad for that match as well.
John Stones and Abdukodir Khusanov are expected to be available for Sunday’s match. Josko Gvardiol, however, has yet to feature this season.
Rico Lewis and Nico O’Reilly both withdrew from England Under-21 duty, though it remains unclear whether their absences place them at risk of missing Sunday’s match. Mateo Kovacic also continues to recover from achilles surgery.
Manchester United Team News
A new look in goal is on the horizon for the Red Devils as well. André Onana has left on loan to Turkish side Trabzonspor after losing his place to Altay Bayındır. To strengthen their options, United have brought in 23-year-old Belgian goalkeeper Senne Lammens from Royal Antwerp, despite earlier links to Aston Villa and Argentina international Emiliano Martínez.
Manchester United have also been active in the transfer market, selling Alejandro Garnacho to Chelsea for £37 million and Antony to Real Betis for £18 million. Rasmus Højlund has been loaned to Napoli, while Jadon Sancho has joined Aston Villa on loan.
Manager Rúben Amorim will be hoping Diogo Dalot is fit after he withdrew from the Portugal squad with muscle discomfort. Matheus Cunha is ruled out with a hamstring injury sustained against Burnley, while Mason Mount is also expected to miss the derby, according to Ben Jacobs. Mount’s absence is a major blow, as he has been key in linking play and providing fluid rotations in United’s attack.
Predicted Starting Lineups
Manchester City Lineup Notes
Donnarumma is expected to start ahead of Trafford in what would be his first appearance for City. With Marmoush sidelined, Jeremy Doku looks the natural replacement. His ability to drive at United’s defense from a more central position, especially with Aït-Nouri pushing him inside from the wing, will be something to watch. In central defense, Rúben Dias is likely to return to provide stability and experience.
Manchester United Lineup Notes
Diogo Dalot remains questionable, but with no official ruling yet, United fans will be hoping he is fit to feature on Sunday. Dalot impressed against Burnley and, if available, should start on the left side of defense.
Mason Mount is expected to miss out, according to Ben Jacobs, which could open the door for Zirkzee to step into the starting lineup on the left. In midfield, Amorim has several options to partner Bruno Fernandes, with Casemiro, Ugarte, and Mainoo all fit and pushing for minutes. Mainoo, in particular, could be relied upon to provide balance and spark in the middle of the pitch.
Up front, Sesko may get the nod to lead the line. In goal, either Lammens or Bayındır will start, with new signing Lammens the more likely choice as Onana departs on loan to Trabzonspor.
Match Preview
This match is intriguing less for who is on the pitch and more for who is missing. For Manchester United, the absences of Matheus Cunha and Mason Mount are significant. Mount has been a vital link-up player, keeping his spot in the lineup ahead of summer arrival Benjamin Šeško, while Cunha’s pace, power, and eye for goal have been central to United’s counter-attacking threat. Losing both removes two key outlets in United’s attack.
Another storyline lies in goal, with both sides likely to start new keepers. Pep Guardiola’s system relies heavily on a goalkeeper comfortable in possession, but while Donnarumma is among the world’s elite shot-stoppers, his build-up play falls short of what City typically demand. With Trafford already struggling in that area this season, City’s ability to initiate their play from the back will be something to watch closely.
Tactically, City should still find opportunities to exploit United through the central areas. Amorim’s 3-4-3 pushes play wide, leaving just two central midfielders, which City can look to overload. With Aït-Nouri and Nunes pushing higher, players like Doku and Bobb can invert inside rather than stay wide, creating even more congestion in midfield. This will likely force United’s defenders to step out of position to cover the overloads. Luke Shaw and Matthijs de Ligt typically take on that responsibility, but with City pulling them forward, space will inevitably open for Erling Haaland to exploit – and he should see plenty of chances as a result. [See images below]
United will also be susceptible to quick breaking counter-attacks as they have been so far this season. With limited numbers in the central midfield in both defense and attack, City will be able to counter very fast and direct through the middle.
The image above, from United’s match against Burnley, highlights just how thin they can be through the middle in attack. In this sequence, the ball was lost, leaving only Casemiro, De Ligt, and Yoro to deal with the counter. Burnley ultimately squandered the chance, but against City’s caliber, opportunities like this are rarely wasted.
City, of course, have their own challenges. Guardiola’s squad rebuild with younger players has shown growing pains. Rotations can be slow, passes occasionally indecisive, and turnovers have led to dangerous counters. For United, much will depend on whether Benjamin Šeško, stepping in for Cunha, can make an impact. It’s a big ask for the young striker, but he has the quality to exploit the spaces that open up. With City’s own injury concerns, there’s reason to expect some hesitancy in their play, which could create openings for United.
Ultimately, this match feels unpredictable. Both teams are dealing with absences, and players are just back from international duty, so mistakes could prove costly. Even so, the edge likely goes to City. United’s central vulnerabilities give City the room to overload and create chances, and Haaland is far more clinical than anything United currently have up top, making him the most likely difference-maker in the derby.
Betting Tips
Pick: Erling Haaland (MCI) 2+ Shots on Target (SoT)
Odds:
- American: -133
- Decimal: 1.75
- Fractional: 4/5
I’m taking Erling Haaland to have 2+ shots on target in this match. I expect Manchester City to play very direct at times, looking to feed him in behind United’s backline. United’s defenders will inevitably be forced to step up into midfield at points, leaving gaps for Haaland to exploit, and any slow or mistimed rotations could make those openings even more dangerous. On top of that, Haaland is City’s primary aerial threat on corners.
Considering all of this, I’m confident he’ll comfortably reach the two-shots-on-target mark.
Pick: Erling Haaland (MCI) 2+ Shots on Target (SoT)
Disclaimer: The betting picks and analysis shared are for informational purposes only and are not guarantees of outcome or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and only risk money you are willing to lose.
