Another Premier League weekend is upon us, and with it comes plenty of intriguing matchups. But neutral eyes will be fixated on the Tyne–Wear Derby on Sunday as these two rival sides finally clash in the Premier League again. Here’s our full pre-match analysis and breakdown, including team news, player injuries, predicted starting lineups, a tactical preview, key stats, a Sunderland vs Newcastle prediction, and betting picks.
Odds:
| Sunderland | Draw | Newcastle | |
| American | +220 | +230 | +130 |
| Decimal | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Fractional | 11/5 | 23/10 | 13/10 |
What is the Tyne-Wear Derby?
The Tyne–Wear Derby is one of the most historic derbies in English football. It also remains one of the most lively, as the heated exchanges both on and off the pitch are still very much alive today between these two clubs and their fanbases. Sunderland and Newcastle have not faced one another in the Premier League since March 20, 2016. Police presence will be very high for the occasion, and many – myself included – will be excited to see how this match plays out.
Previous Five Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides did cross paths last season in the FA Cup while Sunderland were still in the EFL Championship. Newcastle managed to win that match with a scoreline of 3-0, embarrassing their immediate rivals.
Sunderland Injuries & Team News
Sunderland come into the match off the back of a tough 3-0 defeat to Manchester City last weekend. The Black Cats have been in decent form aside from their most recent outing, however. Prior to their hammering at the Etihad, Sunderland managed a 1-1 draw away at Anfield against Liverpool, a sensational 3-2 comeback against Bournemouth, and a 2-2 draw against league-leaders Arsenal in recent matches.
Reinildo has been dealing with a minor groin injury, and his availability is currently unknown heading into the weekend.
Injuries: Ajibola Alese, Habib Diarra, Leo Hjelde, Reinildo, Luke O’Nien (suspended)
Newcastle United Injuries & Team News
Newcastle head into Sunday off the back of a tough, hard-fought 2-2 draw away at Bayer Leverkusen in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday. In the Premier League last weekend, Newcastle were able to pick up all three points against a 10-man Burnley side.
The Magpies are heading into the Tyne–Wear Derby with some new injury concerns, with central midfielder Joelinton exiting their Champions League match in Germany early due to injury. The severity is not yet known, but the Brazilian is expected to miss the match against Sunderland.
Injuries: Joelinton, Nick Pope, Emil Krafth, Kieran Trippier, Sven Botman, William Osula
Predicted Starting Lineups
Sunderland Lineup Notes
Sunderland have changed their formation and lineup a fair amount this season depending on the match and what personnel manager Régis Le Bris believes is best for each situation. I am predicting that Sunderland line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation to have more numbers in central midfield to deal with Newcastle’s midfield trio. If Sunderland do look to operate more defensively in this match, their 5-4-1 setup is not off the table.
With Reinildo likely unavailable for Sunday’s match, Hume looks the most likely to step into the starting lineup for the Black Cats.
Newcastle Lineup Notes
With Nick Pope still out for Newcastle, Aaron Ramsdale will keep his spot between the sticks for the time being. Joelinton’s injury will have him sidelined for the derby, and young talent Lewis Miley is the most likely replacement.
Newcastle have plenty of options in the wing positions, but Gordon has been in good form as of late, and Harvey Barnes has been undeniable when on the pitch in recent times. I expect Eddie Howe to opt for those two out wide.
Match Preview
This is a match that has been circled on my calendar since Sunderland were promoted. I am looking forward to this one wholeheartedly. Neutrals will be hoping for an intense match filled with entertainment, while fans of each side will feel as though their lives are on the line against their most-hated rivals.
Newcastle in Possession and in Attack
Newcastle operate in a 4-3-3 shape, with their fullbacks pushing high up the pitch to join the attack. In build-up, Newcastle’s structure begins to shift, with one fullback advancing higher while the other remains deeper, creating a temporary back three. [See images below]
This allows Newcastle to create an outlet out wide and get an additional player positioned further up the pitch, ready to join attacks earlier. With three central midfielders, there are plenty of passing options during build-up.
Newcastle look to utilize the outside lanes in both build-up and progression. They play a very horizontal game, looking to shift their opponents toward the side of attack by creating wide overloads and forcing defensive movement. [See image below]
When their opposition shift to defend the overload, central passing lanes open, as does the far side of the pitch for a quick switch. Newcastle frequently use this pattern: once they create an overload in the outside lane, they circulate the ball quickly to the opposite side, where fewer defenders are present and where their far-side winger and fullback can attack into space, progressing the ball into the final 1/3. [See image below]
Sunderland will look to shift toward the side of Newcastle’s progression, clogging central passing lanes and taking away forward options. Newcastle would be wise to draw Sunderland’s defensive shape toward one side before switching play to the open opposite side.
Additionally, during build-up, Newcastle will look to Woltemade in many situations, as the central forward often dips into the space between the lines. Woltemade provides strong link-up play between the midfield trio and the wide attackers. Sunderland’s back line tends to sit deeper and rarely jump forward unless absolutely necessary. Woltemade’s ability to time his drops between the lines could make a huge difference in subtle but important ways, helping Newcastle progress up the pitch.
Newcastle in the Final 1/3
In the final third, Newcastle look to get numbers forward, with their central midfielders given freedom to join attacks and make late, untracked runs into dangerous areas. Along with the midfielders, the fullbacks also join the attack. With one fullback advancing in progression, Newcastle often push the opposite fullback slightly higher and more centrally, allowing their midfielders to push forward by occupying their space. [See images below]
Late runs from Newcastle’s central midfielders can oftentimes go unmarked, leaving a free man in a dangerous area could spell trouble for Sunderland.
Sunderland’s Press
I am expecting Sunderland to operate in their 4-2-3-1 formation to match Newcastle’s midfield trio.
When pressing, Sunderland shift into a 4-4-2 shape, looking to press high and aggressively against the opposition build-up. They man-mark central areas while the front two press the goalkeeper and back line. Sunderland’s press is strong and often forces opponents to play long, where Sunderland can win first or second balls and regain possession.
Sunderland also try to squeeze opponents against the touchlines when the ball goes wide, pressing from every angle. [See image below]
These are exactly the moments when Newcastle will look to circulate the ball to the opposite side quickly, taking advantage of Sunderland’s numbers being dragged wide. [See image below]
Sunderland also counter-press immediately after losing possession. Their attackers and midfielders step up to press, while the back line retreats to shape. This can create large pockets of space between Sunderland’s midfield and defensive lines – areas where Newcastle attackers, especially Woltemade, can drop in to receive and hold up play. Newcastle can look to counter-attack using Woltemade as their outlet.
Sunderland’s Defensive Shape
Sunderland will likely be operating with their 4-2-3-1 defensive shape in this match. [See image below]
Defensively, they aim to clog the central areas, making the middle of the pitch congested. They are less committed to shifting wide when opponents move into the outside lanes in Sunderland’s defensive third. This gives Newcastle opportunities to create numerical overloads wide and make attacking runs into the half-spaces. 1-v-1 situations in the outside lanes can be exploited by Newcastle’s wingers. Bournemouth’s Antoine Semenyo found success in this area earlier in the season, scoring a solo goal after beating his defender in a wide 1-v-1.
Sunderland possess a solid defensive structure, especially at home, and will likely try to match up their midfielders evenly against Newcastle’s trio. Newcastle can find success by creating wide overloads, isolating defenders 1-v-1, and looking to attack Sunderland’s wide defenders.
Newcastle’s Press
Newcastle look to press aggressively when their opposition are building out from the back, even getting their central defenders to step up higher and mark their opposition’s attackers. Newcastle aim to force their opposition long where their sizable defenders can win aerial duels and their midfielders can look to outnumber their opposition and win second balls.
Sunderland do look to play out from the back but when under pressure, Sunderland goalkeeper, Roefs, will look to take the safer option and send the ball long. With a good pressing structure in this match, Newcastle could force Sunderland into losing possession by going long on multiple occasions.
Sunderland’s Build-Up and Progression
Sunderland look to progress through the outside lanes, which works well against a Newcastle side that prefers to clog central areas.
In progression, Mukiele pushes high up the pitch, with holding midfielder Granit Xhaka sitting deeper. Mukiele’s movement allows Traoré to push even higher or invert centrally. [See images below]
Sunderland can also create numerical advantages in the wide areas, something they will likely lean on against a centrally compact Newcastle side. Beating the Newcastle press will be crucial for Sunderland’s success in progressing forward.
Both central holding midfielders sometimes shift toward the side of attack, with the winger pushing high along the touchline and the opposite fullback inverting into midfield. [See image below]
These rotations allow Sunderland to advance through the outside lanes and create numerical advantages higher up the pitch once inside the opposition half.
Sunderland look to overload wide areas in attack, where they can work the ball inside or deliver crosses.
Sunderland’s Attack vs Newcastle’s Defensive Shape
Newcastle shift from a 4-3-3 into a 4-5-1 defensive shape out of possession, clogging central areas and removing central options. This gives Sunderland opportunities to overload the outside lanes and progress effectively. [See image below]
In attack, Sunderland push numbers high while keeping a deeper back line to avoid being overly vulnerable to counter-attacks. Granit Xhaka operates as the single pivot, offering a central option, picking up loose balls, counter-pressing, and circulating possession.
Sunderland’s attacking shape sees Mukiele push high, holding midfielder Sadiki join attacks, and Traoré invert into the half-space, with Xhaka anchoring. [See image below]
A particular action on the pitch that Sunderland should look to take advantage of is when Newcastle’s fullbacks step. Newcastle’s fullbacks will look to jump their line and press any opposition player in possession in the outside lanes of the pitch, allowing their central midfielders to stay central and avoid needlessly shifting. Sunderland should look to play the ball into the outside lanes to pull Newcastle fullbacks out of position and open up space in behind in the half-space. [ See image below]
Overall, Sunderland can find success by utilizing the outside lanes and avoiding Newcastle’s heavily drilled central block.
Sunderland vs Newcastle Prediction
This is a match where everything just discussed could completely go out the window due to the heightened atmosphere and tension. It’s a tough one to call, with both Newcastle and Sunderland looking strong at times but also struggling in other moments. Sunderland will have a massive home-field advantage and will look to use the Stadium of Light to their benefit. Predicting a result here is difficult, but I would side with a draw.
Betting Picks
Pick 1: Both Teams to Score + Both Teams to Receive 1+ Cards
Odds:
- American: -110
- Decimal: 1.90
- Fractional: 9/10
I think this match will be high-intensity and filled with action. Sunderland can find the back of the net by attacking Newcastle’s wide lanes in progression and finding central options once in the final third. Newcastle have the ability to control possession and pin Sunderland back, but the Magpies must handle the pressure and atmosphere of the derby.
Given the high intensity of this fixture, I also expect both sides to be booked.
Pick: Both Teams to Score + Both Teams to Receive 1+ Cards
Pick 2: Granit Xhaka (SUN) – To Be Booked
Odds:
- American: +160
- Decimal: 2.60
- Fractional: 8/5
Granit Xhaka is a player of passion. In this fixture, I expect heated moments, strong tackles, and potential flare-ups. Xhaka is not one to back down from challenges, and I envision the Swiss international and Sunderland captain being booked in this match.
Pick: Granit Xhaka (SUN) – To Be Booked
*Pick is voided if player does not start
Disclaimer: The betting picks and analysis shared are for informational purposes only and are not guarantees of outcome or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and only risk money you are willing to lose.
