This week in the Premier League, Brighton travel to the East Midlands to face a Nottingham Forest side who have been in red-hot form since Sean Dyche’s appointment. Here’s our full pre-match analysis and breakdown, including team news, player injuries, predicted starting lineups, tactical preview, key stats, Nottingham Forest vs Brighton predictions, and betting tips.
Odds:
| Nottingham Forest | Draw | Brighton | |
| American | +175 | +230 | +162 |
| Decimal | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
| Fractional | 7/4 | 23/10 | 81/50 |
Previous Five Head-to-Head Matches (All Competitions)
These two sides met three times in all competitions last season, including an FA Cup match where Nottingham Forest knocked the Seagulls out of the competition. Of course, the headline in the head-to-head history between these two clubs came when Forest managed to throttle Brighton 7-0 at home last season.
Nottingham Forest Injuries and Team News
Forest are coming off a 3-0 win over Swedish side Malmö FF in midweek in the UEFA Europa League, where Sean Dyche was able to heavily rotate his squad while also delivering a strong performance against, respectfully, lesser opposition.
Notably for Forest, Morgan Gibbs-White was not in the squad for Thursday’s match after being ruled out with a minor injury. Dyche and Forest will be hopeful that their star man makes a quick recovery and is ready for Sunday’s clash with Brighton.
Injuries: Chris Wood, Ola Aina, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Douglas Luiz, Dilane Bakwa, Angus Gunn.
Brighton Injuries and Team News
Brighton enter the match hoping to build on their 2-1 win against Brentford last weekend. The injury bug has been kinder as of late to Fabian Hürzeler and his Brighton side than it has to Forest, with only a few key names sidelined.
Injuries: Solly March, Kaoru Mitoma, James Milner, Adam Webster.
Predicted Starting Lineups
Nottingham Forest Predicted Lineup Notes
Sean Dyche was able to heavily rotate his squad in midweek against Malmö FF – giving some players much-needed rest while also providing valuable minutes to more fringe players.
With Chris Wood likely still sidelined on Sunday, Igor Jesus will likely lead the Forest line. Gibbs-White remains questionable for the match given his absence from the midweek fixture, but Forest will be hopeful to have him ready.
Brighton Predicted Lineup Notes
Kagioglu has impressed at left-back and will likely be the choice for this match as well.
With Mitoma out, Gómez has stepped up decently into the starting lineup, and he is expected to take his place there again for this one.
Match Preview
Neutrals will be hoping for an exciting match between these two sides. Nottingham Forest have been in sensational form since Sean Dyche took over and look to be returning to the simplicities that brought them so much success in the Premier League last season.
Brighton have been a possession-dominant side so far this season and will likely see the lion’s share of the ball once again here against Dyche’s defensive setup.
Brighton’s Attacking Shape vs Dyche’s Defensive System
Since taking over at Forest, Sean Dyche has gotten his new side back to what they excelled at last year – defending tightly and waiting to spring attacks on the counter. Forest do not look to hold possession; instead, they sit deep in a compact shape and wait for opportunities to come to them.
Out of possession, Dyche’s Forest set up in a (you guessed it) 4-4-2 formation, with Gibbs-White joining Igor Jesus in the first line of pressure. [See image below]
Forest defend tightly and compactly, keeping a narrow shape aimed at shutting down central areas of the pitch. Their back line and midfield line remain very close together, ensuring that space between the lines is extremely limited for opponents to exploit. [See image below]
When opposition attackers dip into the space between those lines, it becomes the responsibility of Forest’s centre-backs to step up and mark their man, eliminating the option between the lines. Because Forest’s lines are so compact, the centre-backs do not need to step far, meaning they leave little room in behind for through balls.
Brighton thrive on playing line-breaking passes into attackers’ feet between the lines. This will be a challenge for the Seagulls given how well Dyche has drilled his tight 4-4-2 structure. Notably, Danny Welbeck often drops out of the front line to pick up pockets of central space and provide link-up play. Welbeck will be marked tightly when dipping between the lines, and with the space in those areas already so limited, Forest will look to nullify his influence. That being said, all it takes is one late defensive step to catch Forest out. Leeds’ goal against Forest came exactly this way when Milenković was late to track a dropping attacker.
Although Forest have been extremely solid defensively under Dyche, their narrow central shape does leave the outside lanes open to be attacked. [See image below]
Brighton set up their attacking shape to be a 3-2-5 with their fullbacks looking to join in the attack. [See image below]
Brighton’s 3-2-5 in the image above shows left-back Kadioglu pushing high in attack and joining the attacking line in the outside lane, while right-back Wieffer inverts into a holding midfield role alongside Baleba, with Ayari dropping in to cover. Brighton’s 3-2-5 shape is consistent, but the positioning of individual players is flexible. [See image below]
The image above depicts the same 3-2-5 shape, this time with Wieffer remaining in the back line, allowing Baleba and Ayari to operate as Brighton’s double pivot.
Kadioglu has been something of a free-roaming player for Brighton, moving up and down the pitch and even drifting centrally at times. His roaming movements are reminiscent of Arsenal’s Riccardo Calafiori, as both players tend to pop up all over the pitch regardless of their nominal position. [See images below]
Despite Kadioglu’s freedom, Brighton’s players must ensure that their attacking shape is held, rotating accordingly to maintain the 3-2-5 in possession.
As mentioned, Nottingham Forest defend narrow and central, allowing opponents to hold the ball in wide areas far from goal. This suits Brighton, who seek to work the ball out wide to their winger or full-back, where they can either whip crosses into the area or play into the half-spaces. Brighton often try to create numerical overloads on the wings by bringing players from the half-spaces into those channels, opening up opportunities while maintaining passing options to recycle possession. [See images below]
Forest will allow Brighton to have the ball in wide lanes while aiming to keep them out of the penalty box and away from central areas. Brighton’s attacks will likely have to come from the wings. This makes the wide areas one of the most intriguing tactical battlegrounds of the match.
Nottingham Forest’s Counter-Attack
Lethal. Deadly. Dangerous by all accounts. Forest invite pressure; the more opposition players high up the pitch and away from defensive positions, the better. Forest look to spring direct, fast-breaking counter-attacks.
Brighton’s 3-2-5 attacking shape does leave them vulnerable to counters. There are three key reasons why this setup could be problematic against Forest’s counter-attacking strengths.
- First, Brighton’s back three remain narrow. Their attack uses width, but in possession Hurzeler sets the back three to stay central, forcing play outside. When Brighton lose possession, countering through the middle can be difficult with three defenders immediately collapsing on the ball. Forest will likely try to play long balls toward the corners and outside lanes via Gibbs-White and Ndoye when Brighton’s back line is narrow.
- Second, Brighton push high up the pitch in attack. Their back line of three can quickly become a back line of two when full-backs and midfielders advance simultaneously, making them vulnerable if possession is lost before they reset. [See images below]
If possession is lost by Brighton while they only have two at the back and have yet to rotate and adjust their shape, their back line becomes extremely vulnerable and also open centrally with their central defenders having to shift.
- Third, Brighton look to counter-press when they lose the ball. Their counter-press is effective, but if they fail to regain possession quickly and commit too aggressively, Forest can catch them out by going long and direct.
Brighton will have to be wary of Nottingham Forest’s ability on the counter-attack and be sure to not let the Forest attackers find space centrally on the counter. Furthermore, their player rotations in their attacking shape, specifically in the back line, will have to be on point in order to not let themselves get caught out of shape.
Brighton in Build-Up
Brighton look to build from the back when progressing up the pitch. Forest do not operate an overly aggressive press, typically sending only their front two to pressure the back line. This is a smart approach against Brighton, who often invite a press to create space between the lines. Forest will benefit from staying in their shape, allowing Brighton to possess the ball while waiting for mistakes. Overcommitting to the press could allow Brighton to break through and enter dangerous positions with Forest players pulled out of shape.
Nottingham Forest’s Vertical Play
Forest are at their best when moving the ball vertically rather than horizontally. They excel at progressing the ball from the back line into midfield, playing quick one-twos to open up central space and give midfielders time to pick out passes into the front line.
Brighton defend in a 4-5-1 shape, with their wingers dropping into midfield. [See image below]
Their defensive shape is strong, and their midfielders man-mark and track runners well. However, space between the lines can open up at times, and this is exactly where Forest can look to attack. When Brighton press the opposition back line, their wingers or midfielders can jump out of position. Forest’s vertical combinations between defence and midfield can pull Brighton players out of their structure, trigger the press, and open space behind the midfield line for attacking opportunities.
Nottingham Forest vs Brighton Prediction
This should be a tightly contested match, with Brighton dominating possession and Nottingham Forest breaking quickly on the counter when opportunities arise. If predicting a result, a draw seems most likely. Both sides will play the styles they are comfortable with. Forest have been in red-hot form and could catch Brighton lacking. A 1-1 draw would be the lean, though not an official pick – this one is very tight to call.
Betting Tips
Pick: Over 7.5 Shots on Target (SoT)
Odds:
- American: -139
- Decimal: 1.72
- Fractional: 18/25
I think that Nottingham Forest will create opportunities on the counter-attack against Brighton’s possession-heavy style and their 3-2-5 attacking formation. I also believe that Brighton will be able to generate chances from their play in the outside lanes if they can pull Forest defenders out of shape. Furthermore, from those wide areas, Brighton should be able to deliver quality crosses into dangerous zones in the box, which could lead to several Brighton players getting shots away at the Forest goal.
So far this Premier League season, Brighton have averaged 4.33 shots on target per match while allowing their opponents an average of 3.25 shots on target.
In Forest’s three Premier League matches under Sean Dyche, they have averaged a staggering 5.33 shots on target per match while allowing their opposition to average 4.67 shots on target. Although the sample size is small, this aligns with how Forest look to play.
With a low total shots-on-target line here, I am backing the over in what will hopefully be an exciting and thrilling contest.
Pick: Over 7.5 Shots on Target
Disclaimer: The betting picks and analysis shared are for informational purposes only and are not guarantees of outcome or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and only risk money you are willing to lose.
