The stage for this weekend’s marquee Premier League matchup is the Emirates Stadium in North London, where Arsenal host Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday, November 23, in the latest edition of the North London derby. League leaders Arsenal come into this derby heavily affected by injuries as do Tottenham in their own right. Here’s our full pre-match analysis and breakdown, including team news, player injuries, predicted starting lineups, tactical preview, key stats, Arsenal vs Tottenham predictions, and betting tips.
Odds:
| Arsenal | Draw | Tottenham | |
| American | -250 | +375 | +700 |
| Decimal | 1.40 | 4.75 | 8.00 |
| Fractional | 2/5 | 15/4 | 7/1 |
Previous Five Head-to-Head Matches (All Competitions)
Arsenal have completely owned this fixture in recent history, winning four of their last five meetings with the two also playing out a 2-2 draw in the one match that Arsenal did not win.
Arsenal Injuries and Team News
Over the international break, Arsenal’s prolific central defender Gabriel Magalhães picked up an injury that could sideline him for 1–2 months. This is a major blow for the Gunners, as their partnership of William Saliba and Gabriel has looked dominant for some time. Arsenal hold the best defensive record in the Premier League, and the loss of Gabriel will hurt them significantly.
Also withdrawing from international duty was left-back Riccardo Calafiori. His injury appears to be minor, and expectations are that the young Italian will be available on Sunday.
Kai Havertz, Martin Ødegaard, and Viktor Gyökeres were all hopeful of returning after the international break; however, reports suggest each will need a little more time before making their comeback.
Injuries: Gabriel Magalhães, Kai Havertz, Martin Ødegaard, Viktor Gyökeres, Gabriel Jesus, Noni Madueke, and Gabriel Martinelli.
Tottenham Injuries and Team News
Tottenham have dealt with injuries all season. Lucas Bergvall was forced to withdraw from the Sweden squad due to continued issues from the concussion he suffered prior to the international break.
Randal Kolo Muani suffered a fractured jaw in Spurs’ 2–2 draw with Manchester United just before the break, and the Frenchman will miss time.
Injuries: Lucas Bergvall, Randal Kolo Muani, Yves Bissouma, Radu Drăgușin, James Maddison, Dominic Solanke, Dejan Kulusevski, Ben Davies, Archie Gray, and Kota Takai.
Predicted Starting Lineups
Arsenal Lineup Notes
With Gabriel Martinelli likely out, Leandro Trossard should replace him on the left wing. Martin Ødegaard will hope to make progress toward a return, though it is currently believed the Arsenal captain will be unavailable on Sunday, leaving Eberechi Eze in the right-sided No. 10 role. With no real option at striker, Mikel Arteta will likely have to rely on Spanish midfielder Mikel Merino stepping into the centre-forward position.
With Gabriel Magalhães ruled out for the foreseeable future, Piero Hincapié or Cristhian Mosquera could step into the back line.
Tottenham Lineup Notes
With Randal Kolo Muani and Dominic Solanke still sidelined, Richarlison will lead the line for Spurs. Tottenham will likely start a central-midfield pairing of João Palhinha and Rodrigo Bentancur.
Guglielmo Vicario has been in strong form for most of the season and will start in goal.
Match Preview
Arsenal come into this match having dropped their first points in all competitions after a ten-match winning run. Their 2–2 draw with Sunderland before the break extended their unbeaten streak to 14 matches.
Spurs enter the derby sitting fifth in the table after a 2–2 draw with Manchester United. Interestingly, Tottenham lead the Premier League in the away-form table. [See image below]
Tottenham’s away form this season has been exceptional and they will look to continue that form when they head to the Emirates Stadium this weekend.
Tottenham’s Attacking Shape vs Arsenal
Tottenham’s 4-2-3-1 attacking shape shifts into a 3-2-5, with left-back Djed Spence pushing higher and joining the attack as a left winger, allowing Xavi Simons to invert from the left into a left-sided central attacking midfielder. [See image below]
This 3-2-5 structure also enables any of Spurs’ defenders to step into midfield during attacking phases, with one of the holding midfielders dropping into the back line for cover. [See image below]
This provides Spurs with stability when opponents counter quickly. Arsenal often counter through the left wing via Gabriel Martinelli (who will be absent) or Leandro Trossard, depending on who is on the pitch. The absence of central attacker Viktor Gyökeres further limits Arsenal’s counter-attacking danger.
With five attackers positioned high, Spurs can overload certain central areas, particularly targeting Arsenal’s stand-in central defender replacing Gabriel.
Tottenham frequently utilize the wide lanes in the final third to deliver crosses or low driven balls into the box for their central attackers. Man-marking the central attackers when the ball is wide will be crucial for Arsenal and whoever partners William Saliba. Richarlison should look to play off the shoulder of Piero Hincapié or Cristhian Mosquera rather than Saliba.
Tottenham Build-Up vs Arsenal’s Press
Tottenham struggle to build from the back due to their holding midfielders lacking strong ball-progression qualities. Large gaps often appear between Spurs’ midfielders and attackers, forcing circulation back to the defenders or wide into the outside lanes. [See image below]
Arsenal press in a man-oriented structure, aiming to remove central options and force opponents long or toward the wide channels. When teams attempt to play through the fullbacks, Arsenal’s wingers are ready to jump into the press immediately. [See image below]
Eberechi Eze and Declan Rice will track Spurs’ pivots, while Mikel Merino presses the ball carrier. When Arsenal increase their pressing aggression, Eze will push higher to press the defensive line, allowing Martín Zubimendi to step onto Spurs’ holding midfielder while Jurriën Timber covers the winger. [See image below]
Spurs struggled to build out against Manchester United, repeatedly forced into the wide channels, where United’s pressing attackers created turnovers. Arsenal will likely create similar issues, forcing Spurs long where Arsenal can win aerial duels and second balls. If Spurs attempt wide progression, Arsenal’s wingers will be key to forcing turnovers high up the pitch.
Arsenal Attack vs Tottenham
Arsenal attack with a very wide structure, stretching the full width of the pitch. Tottenham prefer to defend narrowly, seeking compactness in their defensive half to remove central passing lanes. Manchester United stretched Spurs by attacking wide, forcing Tottenham to cover larger distances and exposing central gaps when shifted into wide defensive positions.
Arsenal will circulate possession laterally to pull Spurs out of shape and open central spaces to exploit.
In their defensive third, Tottenham become even narrower and shift from a 4-2-3-1 into a 5-4-1, with one defensive midfielder dropping into the back line and the wingers dropping into midfield. [See image below]
I do think Tottenham will be difficult to break down centrally, but here is how Arsenal will look to do so.
Arsenal like to overload the wide lanes, shifting players outward to create numerical advantages. [See image below]
Options while wide for Saka in this situation would be endless: a 1-2 pass to Eze with a run in behind his marker (Spence); a cutting run into the central space of the pitch; a cross into Merino in the area; a pass back to Timber who can play Eze or Saka in behind; Timber making a late attacking run in the half-space losing his marker Xavi; circulation to Zubimendi followed by a central pass to Merino dropping between lines or to Rice depending on how tightly he is marked. The overloading of the outside lanes for Arsenal will surely draw Spurs defenders out and create lots of dangerous opportunities for the Gunners – it will be up to them to take advantage of these opportunities. This leads me into my final key factor of the match…
Arsenal’s Right Wing vs Tottenham’s Left Flank
Djed Spence and Xavi Simons will likely be tasked with defending Bukayo Saka and Jurriën Timber, with Eberechi Eze drifting into those spaces as well. Much of Arsenal’s attacking focus will likely come down their right wing, as Mikel Arteta may prefer the matchup. The quality and dynamism of Arsenal’s right-sided players give them a strong advantage in that area.
Arsenal vs Tottenham Prediction
I am leaning toward Arsenal in this match based on how the two sides match up, though with so many injuries on both sides, certainty is difficult. My prediction is an Arsenal win despite the absences.
Betting Tips
Pick: Tottenham – Team to Receive Most Cards
Odds:
- American: -139
- Decimal: 1.72
- Fractional: 18/25
Arsenal have been very good this season at not letting their emotions get the better of them. Combined with their defensive structure and their ability to almost never be severely caught out of position, the Gunners have accumulated the fewest cards in the Premier League this season (11). Tottenham, meanwhile, rank third in cards accumulated, tied with Everton and Chelsea, with all three sides having picked up 26. [See image below]
I think Arsenal will see the bulk of possession, with Spurs’ midfielders and defenders being drawn into errors and bookings, especially in central areas of the pitch. Michael Oliver will referee the match. The last time Oliver took charge of an Arsenal match, Myles Lewis-Skelly was shown an undeserved red card – a decision that drew significant media attention and was later successfully appealed by the Gunners.
Mikel Arteta’s instructions will be clear: do not leave any decisions up to the referee or VAR.
I am taking Tottenham to find themselves in Michael Oliver’s book more than Arsenal.
Pick: Tottenham – Team to Receive Most Cards
Disclaimer: The betting picks and analysis shared are for informational purposes only and are not guarantees of outcome or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and only risk money you are willing to lose.
